833
FXUS01 KWBC 090622
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
118 AM EST FRI FEB 09 2024
VALID 12Z FRI FEB 09 2024 - 12Z SUN FEB 11 2024
...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE WEST WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MANY OF THE LOCAL MOUNTAIN RANGES...
...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME A CONCERN THIS WEEKEND ACROSS AREAS
OF THE SOUTH, AND THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
THROUGH SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING FOR SOME LOCATIONS...
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS CROSSING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, AND ESPECIALLY THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WILL MAINTAIN AN
EXPANDED AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE WEST GOING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS ENERGY WILL DRIVE AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION, AND THIS WILL INCLUDE HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. IN GENERAL, AREAS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
ARE LIKELY TO SEE NEW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 6 TO 12
INCHES. HOWEVER, THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THREAT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST CO AND ALSO NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
NM BY SATURDAY, AND THE SNOW IS LIKELY TO SPREAD OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. PORTIONS OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 12 TO 18 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS BY EARLY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EJECTING WINTER STORM THREAT ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THIS
WEEKEND TO BEGIN INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
SLOWING DOWN AND EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT ACROSS AREAS OF THE
SOUTH. MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EJECT EAST
OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALONG THIS FRONT WHICH COUPLED
WITH THE POOLING OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA, AND THEREFORE
LOCALLY SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
CONCERN, AND SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
A RESULT.
MEANWHILE, WITH A LACK OF COLD AIR DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA,
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL GOING THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 25 TO 35 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY,
AND BY SATURDAY, MANY AREAS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND
NORTHEAST WILL BE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WHICH
WILL INCLUDE A LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME RECORD HIGHS BEING SET.
ORRISON/DOLAN
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