927
FXCA20 KWBC 091200
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
659 AM EST FRI FEB 09 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FEB 09/12UTC:
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ITS AXIS FROM 30N 58W...LEEWARD
ISLANDS...GUAJIRA PENINSULA. ITS UPPER CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT TIER
IS ALREADY OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VI AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS HAS FAVORED A RAPID TRANSITION INTO FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND A PLUMMETING OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
20-22MM...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A
LOW-BAROCLINICITY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS ST. MARTIN...SOUTH
OF SAINT CROIX...15N 68W. NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT EXTENDS OVER ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VI. AS A
RESULT...SATELLITE AND RADAR ARE SUGGESTING THE OCCURRENCE OF VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE CAGUAS REGION.
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE.
IN THE MID-LEVELS...AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION ON FRIDAY TO AREAS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OR NEAR 23N 62W BY TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...MODELS ARE FORECASTING A STRONG TRADE WIND CAP AND
PARTICULARLY VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE CAP PERSISTING OVER THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE CAP IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. YET...BEFORE TUESDAY...EXPECT VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AND TRACE AMOUNTS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...GIVEN AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF EASTERLY FLOW BY THEN...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO
CLUSTER PRIMARILY IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE FORM OF EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 0.2
INCHES. EXPECT A SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION ON TUESDAY. BUT GIVEN A
VEERING OF THE WINDS TO EAST SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES...EXPECT LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. THE LATTER IS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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