836
FXCA20 KWBC 091902
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
202 PM EST FRI FEB 09 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 09 FEB 2024 AT 1830 UTC: ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST UNITED STATES EXPANDS INTO NORTHWEST
MEXICO...DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OVER THE WESTERN
USA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BEHIND THESE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS...LOW AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. BY FRIDAY
EVENING...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER COAHUILA....NORTHERN
DURANGO...AND INTO SINALOA. IT IS EXPECTED TO LOSE DEFINITION BY
SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA/SINALOA BORDER...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW PRECIPITATION
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON SATURDAY...A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM
PROPAGATES OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA/SONORA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15MM...WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW PRECIPITATION IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. BY SUNDAY...THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY TO THE
EAST AND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE
UNITED STATES. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST OF MEXICO...INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...DRY AIR IS DOMINATING THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN....WITH ITS BASE IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES...AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...IS PROPAGATING EAST...AND
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AMERICAN REGION. IN THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...A POTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. A TRADE WIND INVERSION CAP HAS DEVELOPED
OVER MOST OF THE REGION AT AN AVERAGE OF ABOUT 850 TO 800
HPA...DEBILITATING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. YET...DUE TO
THE LOW AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. ON
FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED BASE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NORTHERN
VENEZUELA...WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. A
WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND AN
ACCOMPANYING PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA WILL BE
TRIGGERING PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND PROGRESSING TO THE EAST...YET
REMAINING STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE
WEEKEND. IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE INCREASING IN SPEED AND THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL JETS ARE
ADVECTING MOISTURE TO CENTRAL AMERICA. AS THEY REACH THE CARIBBEAN
COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...OROGRAPHIC LIFT FAVORS
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA...AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...DRY AIR IS BEING ADVECTED OVER SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA...GUYANA...AND SURINAME...IN THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE WEST
INTO COLOMBIA...NORTHERN BRASIL...PERU...AND WESTERN ECUADOR.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ITCZ ACTIVITY OVER FRENCH GUIANA....AND AMAPA-BRASIL WILL FAVOR
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...AND WILL REMAIN OVER THESE AREAS OVER
THE WEEKEND. TO THE WEST...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE ITCZ IN THE
PACIFIC OCEAN IS ORGANIZING OVER THE WESTERN SHORES OF
ECUADOR/PERU...AND WITH IT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF ECUADOR.
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...AND
INTO THE WEEKEND OVER WESTERN ECUADOR. ON FRIDAY...WESTERN ECUADOR
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...WHILE EASTERN
ECUADOR...COLOMBIA...WEST VENEZUELA..AND NORTHERN PERU CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT MAXIMA TO
REMAIN BELOW 25MM. ON SATURDAY...WESTERN ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 40-80MM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA...NORTHERN BRASIL...AND NORTHERN PERU...WHERE
PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXPECTED ARE 20-35MM. ON SUNDAY...THE WESTERN
PORTION OF ECUADOR CONTINUES TO SEE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. ITCZ ACTIVITY
ALONG NORTHERN ECUADOR...AND NORTHERN PERU/BRASIL...WILL FAVOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page