295
FXUS01 KWBC 100718
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
217 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2024
VALID 12Z SAT FEB 10 2024 - 12Z MON FEB 12 2024
...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
...AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH...
...POTENTIALLY RECORD-SETTING WARMTH EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST...
A WINTER STORM ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW WILL CROSS AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY AND WILL BEGIN SPILLING EAST OUT ACROSS ADJACENT
AREAS OF THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL YIELD HEAVY ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH SPECIFIC EMPHASIS ON THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AREAS FROM THE FRONT RANGE SOUTH ALL THE WAY
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SEE SNOW DEVELOP AND BECOME LOCALLY
HEAVY AS WELL AS THE STORM SYSTEM GRADUALLY EJECTS EAST OUT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATER SUNDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE IMMEDIATE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER,
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE ROCKIES,
WITH SOME ISOLATED 12 TO 18 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO RANGE.
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EJECTING WINTER STORM WILL ALSO BE
INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AND
EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT ACROSS AREAS OF THE SOUTH. AS MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY EJECT EAST OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND ALONG THIS FRONT, THE POOLING OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
WHICH WILL EXTEND ACROSS AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO
THE MID-SOUTH, WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY
INTO SUNDAY INCLUDING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE
HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE
MID-SOUTH.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED, AND AREAS OF THE MID-SOUTH IN PARTICULAR MAY SEE LOCALLY
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FROM INSTANCES OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING, AND THE THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ACCORDINGLY DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR THIS REGION. ADJACENT AREAS OF THE GULF COAST STATES
AND THE SOUTHEAST BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL ALSO SEE A
THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE FINALLY
CONSOLIDATES AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-SOUTH.
ELSEWHERE, VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS OF
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN U.S. AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LACK OF
COLD AIR DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. POTENTIALLY RECORD-SETTING
WARMTH IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC,
AND THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
ORRISON
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