119
FXUS01 KWBC 101858
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
157 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2024
VALID 00Z SUN FEB 11 2024 - 00Z TUE FEB 13 2024
...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
...AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH...
...POTENTIALLY RECORD-SETTING WARMTH EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST...
A WINTER STORM ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
CLOSED SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN SPILLING EAST OUT ACROSS AREAS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL YIELD HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH SPECIFIC EMPHASIS ON THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. AREAS FROM THE FRONT RANGE SOUTH ALL THE WAY INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SEE SNOW DEVELOP AND BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY AS
WELL, AS THE STORM SYSTEM GRADUALLY EJECTS EAST OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATER SUNDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND OVER THE IMMEDIATE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES, WITH SOME ISOLATED 12 TO 18 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EJECTING WINTER STORM WILL ALSO BE
INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AND
EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT ACROSS AREAS OF THE SOUTH. AS MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY EJECT EAST OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND ALONG THIS FRONT, THE POOLING OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
WHICH WILL EXTEND ACROSS AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO
THE MID-SOUTH, WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY INCLUDING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS,
LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PICK UP STEAM AND ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. THUS, THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY WHERE A SLIGHT
RISK IS IN EFFECT.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED, AND AREAS OF THE MID-SOUTH IN PARTICULAR MAY SEE LOCALLY
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FROM INSTANCES OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING, AND THE THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ACCORDINGLY DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR THIS REGION. ADJACENT AREAS OF THE GULF COAST STATES
AND THE SOUTHEAST BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL ALSO SEE A
THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE FINALLY
CONSOLIDATES AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-SOUTH.
ELSEWHERE, VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS OF
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN U.S. AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LACK OF
COLD AIR DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. POTENTIALLY RECORD-SETTING
WARMTH IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE
NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.
KEBEDE/ORRISON
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