298
FXUS01 KWBC 110800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2024
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 11 2024 - 12Z TUE FEB 13 2024
...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS TODAY BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST AND AIMING
FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, NEW YORK, AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS WEEK...
...AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT
THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND THROUGH MONDAY...
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN U.S., WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ESPECIALLY THE ADJACENT AREAS
OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES AND DEEPENS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION BY TONIGHT, SOME SNOWFALL WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD AREAS OF OKLAHOMA AS MARGINALLY COLD AIR
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING NORTHWARD OF THE LOW CENTER FOCUS
AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES, MID-SOUTH,
AND SOUTHEAST, LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT, AND THIS COUPLED WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOLING
ALONG A STRONG FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED OVER THE REGION WILL FAVOR
NUMEROUS AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, AND THIS WILL INCLUDE A CONCERN FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO ALABAMA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND THEN FOR
THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED, AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO PRODUCE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING WHERE ANY AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREA. LOCALLY A FEW INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THESE AREAS AS THE LOW CENTER GRADUALLY CROSSES THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND AIMS FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY
NIGHT.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, THE
CONCERN WILL AGAIN TURN TO A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
AS MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW
CENTER BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER SUFFICIENT LEVELS OF COLD AIR FOR A
SWATH OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF
HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY AS A VERY DEEP LOW CENTER EDGES OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED NORTH OF THIS LOW TRACK. STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL
FLOODING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS EVOLVING NOR'EASTER THREAT.
MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW ITSELF,
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
DESPITE THE THREAT OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR AREAS OF THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS WEEK,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS LARGE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN U.S.
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE LACK OF COLD AIR TRANSPORT
SOUTH FROM CANADA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS LARGE AREAS OF THE SOUTH
THOUGH WILL ACTUALLY BE BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER, AND THREAT FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
ORRISON
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