065
FXUS01 KWBC 112004
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2024
VALID 00Z MON FEB 12 2024 - 00Z WED FEB 14 2024
...HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAIN/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND OVER THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE WESTERN GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY; THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...
LOW PRESSURE, AN ASSOCIATED FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST, MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY AND THEN MOVES
OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LOW WILL PULL MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO, PRODUCING AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. FURTHERMORE,
THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF EF2-EF5 AND HAIL TWO INCHES OR
GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOREOVER, A NARROW STRIP OF HEAVY SNOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ON MONDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES AS HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL
STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
SIMILARLY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. FURTHER, HEAVY
SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A FRONT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER, LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY.
FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
AS THE ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD, SNOW DEVELOPS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ON TUESDAY, SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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