161
FXUS01 KWBC 120817
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
316 AM EST MON FEB 12 2024
VALID 12Z MON FEB 12 2024 - 12Z WED FEB 14 2024
...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CROSSING THE MID-SOUTH TODAY WILL
TRANSITION TO A STRONG NOR'EASTER FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND BY TUESDAY...
...AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...
...NEW STORM SYSTEM TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW WILL CROSS THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
TODAY, AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS AND GRADUALLY THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. LOCALLY SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED, WITH PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS EXPECTED
TO SEE IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, AND ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE MID-SOUTH,
THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL PRODUCE
NUMEROUS AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH CONCERNS FOR LOCALLY STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA, THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, AND INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE SOUTHEAST, HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RAIN TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2 OF 4) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO
ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT AND BE TRANSITIONING TO A STRONG NOR'EASTER TUESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NEAR THE
DELMARVA AND EJECTS WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONCERN WILL REFOCUS BACK TO WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS AS MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER
ENCOUNTERS SUFFICIENT LEVELS OF COLD AIR FOR A SWATH OF HEAVY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, SOUTHEAST NEW YORK, AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MANY OF THESE AREAS WILL SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH
SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE POCONOS,
CATSKILLS, AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEEING IN
EXCESS OF 12 INCHES. THE NOR'EASTER WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH COUPLED WITH THE HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD
DAMAGE TREES AND POWER LINES. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BRING A
THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING.
A NEW STORM SYSTEM MEANWHILE WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE COASTAL RANGES OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND HEAVY SNOWFALL
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES. THIS SNOWFALL THREAT
WILL ALSO EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMS INLAND.
ORRISON
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