968
FXCA20 KWBC 121250
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
750 AM EST MON FEB 12 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FEB 12/12UTC:
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...THE LOCAL RAINFALL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. ADVECTIVE TRADE WIND
SHOWERS THAT MAY AFFECT THE USVI AND EASTERN PR IN THE MORNING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOONS
DEPENDING ON THE OVERALL WIND DIRECTION AND SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. THERE IS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THAT
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND MOVING EAST
SLIGHTLY FASTER THEREAFTER AS A STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...CAUSING A COL NORTH OF PR BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CAUSING VERY LIGHT WINDS LOCALLY. THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS THE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED BRING A NARROW
BAND OF MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AND THEREFORE KEEP A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE. A TRADE WIND
INVERSION IS FORECAST AT AROUND 850 HPA THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...ERODING ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS A SFC TROUGH
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...MOVES OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
GIVEN THE FORECAST SYNOPTIC PATTERN...SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS...MAINLY EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...BUT
THE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODEST...MAXING OUT AT NEAR 0.25
INCHES OR LESS EACH DAY...EXCEPT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHERE UP TO 0.40 IS FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN PR. GIVEN THE LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND AS THE TRADE WIND
INVERSION ERODES...THERE MAY BE SMALL AREAS OF LOCALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT STILL PRODUCING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EASTERN TO
NORTHEASTERN PR...AS WELL AS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA COULD OBSERVE
NEAR 0.75 TO 1.15 INCHES...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS OF PR
WOULD OBSERVE LESS THAN 0.50 INCHES. THE USVI IS FORECAST TO
OBSERVE NEAR 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES OVER THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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