609
FXCA20 KWBC 121843
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
143 PM EST MON FEB 12 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 12 FEB 2024 AT 1830 UTC: ON MONDAY...A KELVIN
WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY THE DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO IS APPROACHING
INTO WESTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...PROVIDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER AREAS OF DEEP
CONVECTION. OVER THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN MEXICO...CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL SEE THE EFFECTS OF A POTENT
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS THAT IS FAVORING A
STRONG TRADE WIND INVERSION CAP...LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...DRY AIR IS DOMINATING OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN ON MONDAY...LIMITING MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL BY MONDAY EVENING. TO THE WEST...A MOIST PLUME
ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...INTO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS..AND ENTERS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF HONDURAS AND
CENTRAL GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS. THE ADDITIONAL EFFECTS OF THE EASTERLY
TRADES WILL FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...WHERE MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
OVER WESTERN MEXICO...THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST PLUME IS EXPECTED
TO ENHANCE OVER ZACATECAS/NORTHERN JALISCO AND OTHER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MEXICO. AN INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN COASTS OF
MEXICO AND ADVECT INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN...WHILE THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO REACH THE EXTREME WESTERN MEXICO. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO AND AN ADDITIONAL
KELVIN WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION AND ENHANCE THE
CONDITIONS FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE EAST
PROGRESSES FURTHER EAST...LOCATED OVER TURKS AND CAICOS..EASTERN
CUBA...AND LOSING DEFINITION JUST NORTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE PRESENT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
TOTALS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. ON MONDAY...THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/EAST
OAXACA/WEST CHIAPAS WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS REGION AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT MAXIMA UNDER 15MM. ON
TUESDAY...NORTHERN HONDURAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM DUE TO
THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE REGION ADVECTION MOISTURE AND FAVORING
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. FROM SOUTHERN NUEVO LEON
TO NORTHERN NAYARIT EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS CAN
BE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN CUBA...JAMAICA...EASTERN COSTA
RICA/PANAMA...AND THE CENTRAL ANTILLES. BY WEDNESDAY...WEST AND
CENTRAL MEXICO BEGIN TO SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM NORTHERN SAN
LUIS POTOSI TO JALISCO. THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MMM...AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOSING DEFINITION.
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/NORTHEAST OAXACA...THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS...EAST COSTA RICA/PANAMA...AND THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 20MM.
ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE ITCZ IS LOCATED OVER
WESTERN ECUADOR...ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...WILL FAVOR
MODERATE AMOUNTS IN THE REGION. THE TRADE WINDS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ARE ADVECTING MOIST PLUMES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CONTINENT. WITH THE ADDITION OF THE APPROACHING KELVIN WAVE
AND DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO...THE REGION WILL SEE MORE
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON
MONDAY...WESTERN ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM WITH RISK
OF MCS FORMATION. SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...EASTERN PERU...AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND PARA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA AND AMAPA-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION...ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IS
EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY....THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE ITCZ BEGINS TO
LOSE DEFINITION...AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS MOVING SOUTH DUE TO
THE PANAMA LOW LEVEL JET ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP. NORTHWEST ECUADOR
WILL STILL SEE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ECUADOR WILL SEE A
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. TO THE
EAST...MOIST AIR IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE WEST GUIANAS AS A
TROUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS PROGRESSES WEST OVER THE REGION.
NORTHERN BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE THE GUIANAS
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN PORTION
OF ECUADOR WILL SEE LESS PRECIPITATION WITH THE DECREASE IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WHILE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN BRASIL. FROM NORTHERN
BRASIL....SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...AND NORTHERN PERU...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. WESTERN ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE THE
REST OF THE REGION CAN EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA UNDER 25MM.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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