892
FXUS01 KWBC 122000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST MON FEB 12 2024
VALID 00Z TUE FEB 13 2024 - 00Z THU FEB 15 2024
...A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM BRINGING SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IMPACTS TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION
TO A STRONG NOR'EASTER FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND BY TUESDAY...
...NEW STORM SYSTEM TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW WILL CROSS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH ENOUGH COLD
AIR TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS
TONIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, AND ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY, THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A
STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE ATLANTIC. THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS THREAT.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT AND WILL TRANSITION TO A STRONG NOR'EASTER TUESDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NEAR THE DELMARVA
AND EJECTS WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CONCERN WILL REFOCUS BACK TO WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS AS
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER ENCOUNTERS
SUFFICIENT LEVELS OF COLD AIR FOR A SWATH OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS FORECAST, PARTICULARLY WITH WHERE THE AXIS OF SNOWFALL
WILL DEVELOP AND OCCUR. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HEAVY
SNOWFALL OCCURRING FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DOWN INTO SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY. GENERALLY, BETWEEN 6-12 INCHES ARE
PROBABLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE NOR'EASTER
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH COUPLED
WITH THE HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD DAMAGE TREES AND POWER LINES. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING.
A NEW STORM SYSTEM MEANWHILE WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE COASTAL RANGES OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND HEAVY SNOWFALL
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES. THIS SNOWFALL THREAT
WILL ALSO EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMS INLAND.
KEBEDE/ORRISON
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