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FXCA20 KWBC 131246
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
745 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FEB 13/12UTC:
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS NOW FORECAST TO BE WITHIN THE
NORMAL RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE
OVERALL PATTERNS APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN SUGGESTING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS HOWEVER
ONE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THAT IS THAT THE HI-RES MODELS DO SHOW
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PR AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND DO NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR. THIS COULD BE
BECAUSE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WOULD BE
CAUSING A CAP INVERSION...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
LOCALLY INDUCED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...WE DECIDED TO
ALLOW SOME ROOM FOR UNCERTAINTY AND PUT SOME RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN PR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT WITH MODEST
AMOUNTS...GENERALLY UNDER 0.25 INCHES. HOWEVER...EASTERN PR AND
THE USVI IS STILL FORECAST TO OBSERVE SOME RAIN EACH DAY...MOSTLY
IN SHALLOW AND BRIEF SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
AT THE SFC...THERE IS A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THAT WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RELAX THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FORM A COL NORTH OF PR ON
WEDNESDAY...CAUSING VERY LIGHT WINDS LOCALLY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY EARLY
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW OVER THE NW ATLANTIC...TO THE EAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...BUT COULD STALL JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE
THERE COULD BE A COLD OR STATIONARY FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BY THEN. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AND THEREFORE KEEP A RELATIVELY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE. A TRADE WIND INVERSION IS FORECAST AT AROUND 850 HPA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ERODING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MOVES OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EASTERN TO
NORTHEASTERN PR...AS WELL AS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA COULD OBSERVE
NEAR 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS OF PR
WOULD OBSERVE LESS THAN 0.50 INCHES. THE USVI IS FORECAST TO
OBSERVE NEAR 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES OVER THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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