164
FXCA20 KWBC 131757
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1256 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 13 FEB 2024 AT 1800 UTC: ON TUESDAY...A POTENT
DIVERGENT PULSE OF THE MJO IS APPROACHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...REACHES WESTERN MEXICO...ALONG WITH A KELVIN WAVE. THESE
CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL ASSIST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...THE MJO DIVERGENT PHASE AND KELVIN WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS FURTHER EAST INTO EASTERN MEXICO...AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...A POTENT UPPER AIR TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...PROGRESSING EAST AND REACHING WESTERN
MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING. A MONSOON-LIKE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
WESTERN MEXICO FROM THE EAST PACIFIC...ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DIVERGENT
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DAY BEING ON THURSDAY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MEXICO. OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...AND INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS/CENTRAL GUATEMALA BY TUESDAY
EVENING. AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND NORTHEASTERN WINDS WILL FAVOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN NORTHER HONDURAS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND
BECOME STATIONARY OVER CUBA BY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...AND WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF THE TRADE WIND INVERSION CAP OVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ON TUESDAY...NORTHERN HONDURAS
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE THE SURROUNDING AREAS OF
BELIZE...CENTRAL GUATEMALA...AND OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
HONDURAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM. CENTRAL MEXICO...WESTERN
CUBA...JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...AND EASTERN COSTA
RICA/PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 20MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM JALISCO TO SAN LUIS POTOSI. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ/EAST OAXACA...EASTERN COSTA RICA/PANAMA...AND JAMAICA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 20MM. ON THURSDAY...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
MEXICO...FROM JALISCO...TO NORTHERN COAHUILA/NUEVO LEON...CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. TO THE NORTH...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
COAHUILA/CHIHUAHUA....AND NORTHERN DURANGO CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. NORTHERN PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM AS MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS DEVELOPING DUE TO THE INCREASED LLJ FROM THE
TRADES. ELSEWHERE IN COSTA RICA...BELIZE...SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ/OAXACA...TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 20MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON TUESDAY...INTERACTIONS ALOFT BETWEEN A
TROUGH AND A RIDGE OVER COLOMBIA/NORTHERN PERU IS FAVORING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE REGION...ALLOWING DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
ADDITIONALLY...A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST REGION HAS ITS BASE
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF BRASIL...WHERE THERE ARE INTERACTIONS
WITH THE ITCZ...ALSO ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO FORM. IN NORTHERN
VENEZUELA/GUIANA...MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE
WINDS...BEING ADVECTED THROUGH TROUGHS PROGRESSING WEST. THIS
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT WEST AND BRING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE PROMOTING DEEP CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED BY THE
APPROACHING KELVIN WAVE AND DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
IN WESTERN ECUADOR...THE ITCZ IS MIGRATING SOUTH DUE TO THE
INTRUSION OF THE PANAMA LLJ. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
DUE TO THE WINDS FROM THE WEST AND HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
TUESDAY...NORTHWEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WHILE
NORTHERN BRASIL....SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...AND NORTHERN PERU CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. AMAPA AND NORTHERN PARA-BRASIL...WEST
COLOMBIA...AND SOUTHWEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION...EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN PERU...AND WESTERN AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...AND WESTERN PARA AND EASTERN AMAZONAS-BRASIL
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. AMAPA-BRASIL AND WESTERN ECUADOR
COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON THURSDAY...NORTHWEST ECUADOR WILL
SEE INCREASED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ...WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WHILE SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM WITH INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THURSDAY. EAST
COLOMBIA...NORTHERN PERU...AND INTO NORTHERN BRASIL EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. SCATTERED MAXIMA BELOW 25MM ARE EXPECTED IN OTHER
AREAS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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