433
FXCA20 KWBC 141248
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
747 AM EST WED FEB 14 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FEB 14/12UTC:
ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR. GIVEN THAT SOME
CONVECTION DID OCCUR RECENTLY...A BIT MORE WEIGHT WAS CONSIDERED
FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...SO THE FORECAST IS ACCOUNTING FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
AREA WHERE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE THERE IS A RELATIVELY
LARGE AREA OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH THE MAX AMOUNTS ACROSS
ISOLATED AREAS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST SHOWS. OUR
FORECAST HAS MAX VALUES FOR JUST OVER 1 INCH TODAY...BUT SOME OF
THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1.5
INCHES. SO THE THOUGHT IS THAT AROUND 1 INCH COULD BE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LOWER WITH OUR FORECAST INDICATING BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES
WHILE THE HI-RES GUIDANCE LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF
THAT RANGE. ON FRIDAY...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AND BE MORE PERSISTENTLY FROM THE EAST...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON FRIDAY ONWARD...LIMITING MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO EASTERN PR AND THE USVI. SUNDAY LOOKS
PARTICULARLY DRY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HOWEVER.
AT THE SFC...A HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS DRIFTING EAST...WHILE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS LOW PRESSURE HAS A
LARGE COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NORTH
OF PR...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA AND OVER SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THERE IS ALSO A SFC TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT STILL NORTH OF PR. A SFC HIGH ENTERING
THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD
FRONT TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE THE
STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT REMAINS JUST NORTH OF PR AS IT
WEAKENS AND FRAGMENTS BY FRIDAY. IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AND THEREFORE KEEP A
RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE. A TRADE WIND INVERSION IS STILL
FORECAST AT AROUND 850 HPA THROUGH TODAY...ERODING BY THIS EVENING
INTO THURSDAY BUT THE INVERSION MAY RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EASTERN PR COULD
OBSERVE AROUND 0.75 INCHES. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR
COULD OBSERVE NEAR 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN GENERAL...THOUGH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS DEPENDING ON THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE USVI COULD
OBSERVE BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.50 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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