693
FXCA20 KWBC 141826
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
125 PM EST WED FEB 14 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 14 FEB 2024 AT 1730 UTC: AN UPPER DIVERGENT
PULSE OF THE MJO AND AN ACCOMPANYING KELVIN WAVE IS FORECAST TO
ENTER WESTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. THE
EFFECTS OF THE MJO AND KELVIN WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST
AND CONTINUE OVER THE REGION OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EVEN THESE CONDITIONS...PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN THE REGION AND THE
TRADE WIND INVERSION CAPS IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WILL INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTION.
IN MEXICO...A MONSOON-LIKE TROUGH IS ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY AND THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A DEEP TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OVER
WESTERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES
MEXICO...INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL ASSIST WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE DAY OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. BY
EARLY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER WEST AND
CENTRAL MEXICO...AND WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IN THE TAMAULIPAS AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. ON
WEDNESDAY...FROM ZACATECAS TO NAYARIT...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM...AS MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE REGION. SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ...BELIZE...NORTHERN HONDURAS...EASTERN COSTA RICA...AND
PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON THURSDAY...AN INCREASE IN
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM FROM JALISCO TO NUEVO LEON...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF
15-25MM IN SOUTHERN COAHUILA/DURANGO. IN NORTHERN
PANAMA...INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE EAST WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON FRIDAY...FROM SOUTHERN NAYARIT...TO
MICHOACAN...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM AS MORE MOISTURE IS PRESENT
OVER THE REGION. ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM...WHILE OTHER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. EASTERN COAHUILA...NUEVO LEON...AND TAMAULIPAS
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...EXPECT MAXIMA TO
REMAIN BELOW 15MM.
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER AMAZONAS-BRASIL...WHILE THE BOLIVIAN HIGH EXTENDS
INTO NORTHERN PERU ON WEDNESDAY. THEIR INTERACTION IS ALLOWING FOR
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE OVER AMAZONAS-BRASIL...SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA...AND NORTHERN PERU. INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ WILL
PROVIDE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO THE
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO THE PROPAGATION
OF TROUGHS OVER VENEZUELA AND INTO COLOMBIA BY FRIDAY. IN WESTERN
ECUADOR...INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ WILL FAVOR THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST OF ECUADOR. A BREAK FROM THESE
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...AS THE MJO
DIVERGENT PHASE AND KELVIN WAVE REACHES SOUTH AMERICA BY
FRIDAY...EXPECT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...NORTHERN PERU...AND
EASTERN ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH RISK OF MCS
FORMATION. EASTERN
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AMAPA-BRASIL...PARA-BRASIL...AND WESTERN ECUADOR
COULD EXPECT GENERAL MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SCATTERED MAXIMA OF UNDER
25MM ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. ON
THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF TROUGHS OVER COLOMBIA...WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA. SIMILAR AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN ECUADOR. SCATTERED STORMS
OVER EASTERN COLOMBIA...AND INTO NORTHERN BRASIL WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. AMAPA-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. BY
FRIDAY...THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA WILL
FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN ECUADOR...COLOMBIA..AND NORTHERN
PERU...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WESTERN AND EASTERN COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED BY THE LOW LEVEL JETS OVER THE
GUIANAS AND VENEZUELA WILL DECREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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