693  
FXCA20 KWBC 141826  
PMDCA  
 
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
125 PM EST WED FEB 14 2024  
 
FORECAST BULLETIN 14 FEB 2024 AT 1730 UTC: AN UPPER DIVERGENT  
PULSE OF THE MJO AND AN ACCOMPANYING KELVIN WAVE IS FORECAST TO  
ENTER WESTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING  
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. THE  
EFFECTS OF THE MJO AND KELVIN WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST  
AND CONTINUE OVER THE REGION OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
HOWEVER...EVEN THESE CONDITIONS...PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN  
WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN THE REGION AND THE  
TRADE WIND INVERSION CAPS IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WILL INHIBIT DEEP  
CONVECTION.  
 
IN MEXICO...A MONSOON-LIKE TROUGH IS ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE  
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY AND THE REST OF THE  
FORECAST PERIOD. A DEEP TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS LOCATED OVER  
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OVER  
WESTERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES  
MEXICO...INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL ASSIST WITH THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT THREE  
DAYS...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE DAY OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. BY  
EARLY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER WEST AND  
CENTRAL MEXICO...AND WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL  
SYSTEM IN THE TAMAULIPAS AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. ON  
WEDNESDAY...FROM ZACATECAS TO NAYARIT...EXPECT MAXIMA OF  
15-25MM...AS MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE REGION. SOUTHERN  
VERACRUZ...BELIZE...NORTHERN HONDURAS...EASTERN COSTA RICA...AND  
PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON THURSDAY...AN INCREASE IN  
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF  
20-45MM FROM JALISCO TO NUEVO LEON...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF  
15-25MM IN SOUTHERN COAHUILA/DURANGO. IN NORTHERN  
PANAMA...INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE EAST WILL FAVOR  
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON FRIDAY...FROM SOUTHERN NAYARIT...TO  
MICHOACAN...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM AS MORE MOISTURE IS PRESENT  
OVER THE REGION. ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...EXPECT MAXIMA  
OF 20-35MM...WHILE OTHER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO CAN EXPECT  
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. EASTERN COAHUILA...NUEVO LEON...AND TAMAULIPAS  
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO  
DEVELOP. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...EXPECT MAXIMA TO  
REMAIN BELOW 15MM.  
 
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS  
LOCATED OVER AMAZONAS-BRASIL...WHILE THE BOLIVIAN HIGH EXTENDS  
INTO NORTHERN PERU ON WEDNESDAY. THEIR INTERACTION IS ALLOWING FOR  
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE OVER AMAZONAS-BRASIL...SOUTHERN  
COLOMBIA...AND NORTHERN PERU. INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ WILL  
PROVIDE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO THE  
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO THE PROPAGATION  
OF TROUGHS OVER VENEZUELA AND INTO COLOMBIA BY FRIDAY. IN WESTERN  
ECUADOR...INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ WILL FAVOR THE MOISTURE  
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST OF ECUADOR. A BREAK FROM THESE  
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...AS THE MJO  
DIVERGENT PHASE AND KELVIN WAVE REACHES SOUTH AMERICA BY  
FRIDAY...EXPECT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY  
AND FRIDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...NORTHERN PERU...AND  
EASTERN ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH RISK OF MCS  
FORMATION. EASTERN  
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AMAPA-BRASIL...PARA-BRASIL...AND WESTERN ECUADOR  
COULD EXPECT GENERAL MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SCATTERED MAXIMA OF UNDER  
25MM ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. ON  
THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF TROUGHS OVER COLOMBIA...WILL FAVOR  
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA. SIMILAR AMOUNTS OF  
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN ECUADOR. SCATTERED STORMS  
OVER EASTERN COLOMBIA...AND INTO NORTHERN BRASIL WILL FAVOR MAXIMA  
OF 20-45MM. AMAPA-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. BY  
FRIDAY...THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA WILL  
FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN ECUADOR...COLOMBIA..AND NORTHERN  
PERU...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER  
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WESTERN AND EASTERN COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA  
OF 20-35MM. DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED BY THE LOW LEVEL JETS OVER THE  
GUIANAS AND VENEZUELA WILL DECREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY  
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.  
 
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)  

 
 
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