813
FXUS01 KWBC 150732
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 AM EST THU FEB 15 2024
VALID 12Z THU FEB 15 2024 - 12Z SAT FEB 17 2024
...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE COAST, AND HEAVY HIGH ELEVATION
SNOWFALL INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
...QUICK-HITTING STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...
...NEXT ROUND OF SNOW EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS USHERING IN A STREAM OF PRECIPITATION
INTO THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MEANWHILE, A SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR-MASS ANCHORED IN PLACE BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
FRIDAY. COASTAL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE VALLEYS OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN, WHILE MOUNTAIN
RANGES SUCH AS THE OREGON CASCADES, THE OLYMPICS IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON, AND ON EAST INTO THE HEART OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WITNESS HEAVY SNOW TODAY. BY FRIDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE A
BREAK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHERE PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW FROM
THE TETONS AND WIND RIVER RANGE OF WYOMING ON SOUTH TO THE WASATCH
AND NORTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES ALSO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW. THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT, AS MUCH AS 1-2 FEET OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE
OREGON CASCADES, THE BOISE AND SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO, AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN WASATCH, THE TETONS, AND NORTHERN COLORADO
ROCKIES. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED
FOR MANY OF THESE MOUNTAIN RANGES TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS LIKELY IN MOST OF THESE AREAS.
TO THE EAST, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY IS GENERATING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF ITS TRACK, WHILE
A SWATH OF MODERATE-TO-HEAVY SNOW ENVELOPES SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE, QUICKLY
FINDING ITSELF TRACKING OVER LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WHILE PERIODS OF
SNOW ENSUE OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. BY THURSDAY NIGHT,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ESCORTING IN A COLD, CANADIAN AIR-MASS WILL
RUSH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRIGGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY, BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE STORM TRACKS
FARTHER INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. IN TOTAL, OVER 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECT IN PARTS OF THE MICHIGAN U.P., THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MICHIGAN'S MITTEN, AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. MORE
SPECIFICALLY, THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND NEIGHBORING LOCATIONS COULD
SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW BY THE TIME SNOW CONCLUDES FRIDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO AN IMPACT FROM THIS STORM
SYSTEM, AS EVIDENT BY THE WIND ADVISORIES IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN
OHIO FOR TODAY AND BOTH WESTERN AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK
BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SWATH OF MODERATE-TO-HEAVY SNOW
SETTING UP OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
STORM TRACKS QUICKLY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING WITH PERIODS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WHILE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAKE FOR A DAMP DAY FROM THE ARKLATEX ON EAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE
STORM WILL RESTRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH AN
AXIS OF MODERATE-TO-HEAVY SNOW BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING, THEN OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS
FROM WESTERN MARYLAND TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING SNOWFALL TOTALS SURPASS 4 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT,
BUT ANYWHERE FROM 1-3" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
EVENING, TO THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS ON NORTH TO THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THESE REGIONS, PARTICULARLY ON
UNTREATED ROADS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, A FAIRLY MILD THURSDAY IS ON TAP ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND AS FAR NORTH AS THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE HIGHS RANGE
ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS A COLD FRONT PLUNGES
SOUTH THROUGH THE NATION'S MID-SECTION FRIDAY, THE ANOMALOUS
WARMTH WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH WHILE COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS RETURN TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. WINTER WILL RETURN TO
THE SOUTH AS HIGH TEMPS IN TEXAS GO FROM THE 70S ON THURSDAY TO
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S ON SATURDAY,
MULLINAX
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