914
FXCA20 KWBC 151239
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
738 AM EST THU FEB 15 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FEB 15/12UTC:
OUT OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TO
WESTERN PR...WHILE VERY MINOR SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE OBSERVED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PR. HOWEVER...EASTERN PR IS
FORECAST TO OBSERVE SOME RAIN EACH DAY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE THE USVI WOULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF
SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS. GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE...THE FORECAST FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS BELOW WHAT
THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING...WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 0.5 AND
0.75 INCHES IN THE FORECAST...WHILE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
NEAR 1 INCH OR MORE. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT TODAY...BUT BY FRIDAY THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AND BE MORE PERSISTENTLY FROM THE EAST...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON FRIDAY ONWARD...LIMITING MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO EASTERN PR AND THE USVI. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE THE DRIEST DAY...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY.
AT THE SFC...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS LOW PRESSURE HAS A LARGE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...BECOMING A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM AROUND 20N TO THE NORTH OF PR AND EXTENDING WEST
BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A SFC
HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD
FRONT TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE THE
STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT REMAINS JUST NORTH OF PR AS IT
WEAKENS AND FRAGMENTS BY FRIDAY. IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AND THEREFORE KEEP A
RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE TRADE WIND INVERSION THAT HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL ERODE TODAY...BUT WILL
RETURN ON FRIDAY...AND IT COULD BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ON SUNDAY.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EASTERN PR COULD
OBSERVE AROUND 0.85 INCHES. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR
COULD OBSERVE NEAR 0.75 INCHES IN GENERAL...THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS DEPENDING ON THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE USVI COULD OBSERVE BETWEEN
0.10 AND 0.50 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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