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FXHW40 KWBC 151332
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EST THU FEB 15 2024
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MARCH 2024
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES WERE NEAR-AVERAGE DURING THE PAST WEEK
NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
FOR JANUARY 2024, TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
-LIHUE AIRPORT 2.60 INCHES (94 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
-HONOLULU AIRPORT 2.64 INCHES (143 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
-KAHULUI AIRPORT 5.07 INCHES (210 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
-HILO AIRPORT 3.21 INCHES (41 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS AROUND THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH MARCH 2024. HOWEVER, FOR THE BIG ISLAND, THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT MINORITY OF MODELS THAT FAVORED SSTS CLOSE TO THE LONG-TERM
AVERAGE. BASED PRIMARILY ON THESE SST FORECASTS, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORED TO BE RELATIVELY WARM (COMPARED TO NORMAL), THOUGH FOR THE BIG ISLAND
THE TILT IN THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL IS MODEST. FOR THE MARCH 2024
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED FOR ALL
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, AS INDICATED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS, AND
CONSISTENT WITH THE EL NIñO CONDITIONS OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A40 72.0 0.6 B60 5.7 10.8 15.2
KAHULUI A45 72.9 0.5 B60 1.4 1.9 2.9
HONOLULU A50 74.7 0.5 B55 0.6 0.8 1.9
LIHUE A60 72.7 0.6 B55 1.9 2.6 3.6
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MAM 2024 - MAM 2025
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF THE LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE
CONUS AND ALASKA FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THE ENSO OUTLOOK AND OTHER CLIMATE
CONDITIONS RELEVANT TO THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK. EL NIñO CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SSTS ARE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
DOMINATE MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE SURFACE DOWN TO 50-100
METERS, WHILE NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE STRENGTHENED IN
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN DOWN AT 100-150 METERS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE NEAR
AVERAGE OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE
EASTERLY OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC. ENHANCED CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION
WERE OBSERVED WEST OF THE DATE LINE, WHILE CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION WERE
CLOSE TO AVERAGE AROUND INDONESIA. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS OVER THE
TROPICAL PACIFIC ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH EL NIñO CONDITIONS, THOUGH
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT EL NIñO IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. EL NIñO IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MARCH-APRIL-MAY (MAM), WITH A 79% CHANCE OF TRANSITION
TO ENSO-NEUTRAL DURING APRIL-MAY-JUNE (AMJ) 2024. THE NEUTRAL PHASE OF ENSO IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL OVERLAPPING SEASONS (AMJ AND MJJ). BY JJA, ODDS
OF A LA NIñA BEGIN TO OUTWEIGH THE ODDS OF ENSO-NEUTRAL, AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
LA NIñA CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE SUMMER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING
MARCH-APRIL-MAY (MAM 2024). THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREDICTED CONTINUATION
OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FROM EL NIñO WITH DECADAL TRENDS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM AMJ THROUGH JAS 2024,
SUPPORTED BY A MAJORITY OF NMME DYNAMICAL MODEL INPUTS. WITH ENSO EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION FROM ITS WARM TO ITS NEUTRAL PHASE SOMETIME IN AMJ, ENSO FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO DECLINE ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM AMJ THROUGH JAS 2024. BY JJA, THE
NEUTRAL PHASE OF ENSO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FURTHER TO ITS COLD PHASE (LA
NIñA), AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT SUMMER AND FALL. UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF
LA NIñA DURING LATE SUMMER AND FALL IS THE PRIMARY REASON WHY, BY ASO 2024,
EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT HAWAII IN MAM 2024, AS
DEPICTED BY MOST OF THE CLIMATE MODELS THAT GO INTO THE NMME, AND CONSISTENT
WITH EL NIñO FORCING. WITH THE PREDICTED RAPID COLLAPSE OF EL NIñO AND
SUBSEQUENT TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS BY AMJ 2024, FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS PERIOD ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE
SO-CALLED "SPRING BARRIER", A TIME CHARACTERIZED BY REDUCED SST FORECAST SKILL.
THIS IS THOUGHT TO BE A TIME OF RESET FOR THE GLOBAL OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM,
WHEN STOCHASTIC (RANDOM) PROCESSES HAVE NOT YET LED TO A PARTICULAR OUTCOME OR
DIRECTION. THE HAWAIIAN PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR AMJ THROUGH JAS USE
DYNAMICAL MODEL INPUT FROM THE NMME, IMME (THROUGH MJJ), THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG
(CA) TOOL THAT USES SSTS AS INPUT, DECADAL PRECIPITATION TRENDS (THROUGH THE
ENSO-OCN TOOL), AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN THE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING RELATED TO ENSO. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS THE ARCHIPELAGO DURING THESE SEASONS. BEYOND JAS, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF
BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2024 A40 72.0 0.5 B60 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2024 A40 72.9 0.5 B60 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2024 A40 74.0 0.4 B60 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2024 A40 75.2 0.4 B50 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2024 A40 76.1 0.4 B40 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2024 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2024 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2024 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2024 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2025 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2025 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2025 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2025 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2024 A55 73.0 0.4 B60 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2024 A50 74.3 0.5 B60 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2024 A50 76.0 0.5 B55 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2024 A45 77.7 0.4 B50 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2024 A40 79.0 0.4 B40 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2024 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2024 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2024 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2024 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2025 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2025 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2025 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2025 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2024 A60 74.8 0.4 B60 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2024 A55 76.3 0.4 B50 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2024 A55 78.2 0.4 B50 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2024 A45 79.9 0.4 B45 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2024 A40 81.3 0.4 B40 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2024 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2024 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2024 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2024 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2025 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2025 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2025 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2025 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2024 A60 72.8 0.5 B60 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2024 A60 74.2 0.5 B50 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2024 A55 76.0 0.5 B50 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2024 A45 77.7 0.4 B45 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2024 A40 79.0 0.3 B40 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2024 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2024 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2024 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2024 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2025 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2025 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2025 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2025 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
ANOMALIES ARE BASED ON THE 1991-2020 MEANS.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE PREDICTED PARAMETER WILL
FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIC IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULATE TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW NORMAL
CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD, OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO, THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCES OF THE NEW SET NET MONTH, ON THU MAR 21, 2024.
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