445
FXCA20 KWBC 151852
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
152 PM EST THU FEB 15 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 15 FEB 2024 AT 1800 UTC: AN UPPER DIVERGENT
PULSE OF THE MJO ENTERS MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA ON
THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A KELVIN WAVE...WHICH WILL ASSIST IN
DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. ALTHOUGH THESE CONDITIONS
TEND TO FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION AND CHANCES OF HIGHER
PRECIPITATION...THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS...INDICATING THAT THE CHANCE OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS LOW.
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...A DEEP TROUGH
IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF MEXICO AND IN THE EAST PACIFIC OCEAN ON
THURSDAY EVENING. A MOIST PLUME FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF MEXICO.
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING
EAST AND INTO MEXICO...WHERE THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
FAVOR CONVECTION OVER THE REGION...AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MEXICO BY
SATURDAY. ON FRIDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS AND TAMAULIPAS.
BY SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL VERACRUZ
AND OAXACA/PUEBLA. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH...IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND IT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH INTO MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
SATURDAY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM OVER NORTHERN
NUEVO LEON/TAMAULIPAS...AND NAYARIT AND SOUTH SINALOA. ELSEWHERE
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL MEXICO...EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA OF
15-30MM. ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERN SINALOA AND NAYARIT CAN EXPECT
SIMILAR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE COAHUILA...NUEVO LEON..AND
TAMAULIPAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. JALISCO...COLIMA...AND
MICHOACAN CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL
MEXICO EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA BELOW 25MM. ON SATURDAY...SOUTH
VERACRUZ...NORTH OAXACA/CHIAPAS...AND TABASCO CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM...WHILE NORTHERN VERACRUZ CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
SCATTERED MAXIMA BELOW 25MM IS EXPECT ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL AND THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL. SIMILAR AMOUNTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG CHIAPAS/CENTRAL GUATEMALA AND EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE DEVELOPING
OVER THESE AREAS. WEST CUBA WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE SHEAR LINE AND
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM...WHILE THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ADVECTING SMALL MOISTURE PLUMES OVER
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WHILE A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS...AND CENTRAL
CUBA...HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. OROGRAPHIC LIFTING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
JETS IN THE TRADES WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN NORTHERN
PANAMA. WHILE ISOLATED MAXIMA BELOW 15MM ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS...THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES...AND EAST COSTA RICA. ALTHOUGH THE TRADES BEGIN TO SHIFT
BY SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ON FRIDAY...MAXIMA BELOW
15MM ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN NICARAGUA...NORTH PANAMA...AND THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. ON SATURDAY...IT SEEMS TO BE THE DRIEST
DAY OF THE THREE...WHERE SIGNIFICANT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IS EXPECTED
IN COSTA RICA...ELSEWHERE...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...ECUADOR...SOUTH COLOMBIA...NORTH
PERU...AND NORTHWEST BRASIL ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE
MJO AND KELVIN WAVE WILL BE REACHING THE REGION BY FRIDAY
EVENING...ASSISTING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER SOUTH COLOMBIA/NORTH PERU...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEST OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...FAVORING DIVERGENCE IN
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. ADDITIONALLY...IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY AVAILABLE
MOISTURE TO FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. TO THE
EAST...DRY AIR ADVECTED THROUGH THE TRADE WINDS IS FAVORING DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER NORTH VENEZUELA...AND THE GUIANAS. THE ITCZ
INTERACTIONS ARE WEAK AND ARE SLIGHTLY MIGRATING TO THE SOUTH BY
SATURDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT...WHILE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN BRASIL. ON
THURSDAY...SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...AND WEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM. WHILE EAST COLOMBIA...AND NORTHERN PERU CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. WEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-30MM...WHILE SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH AMAPA AND
CENTRAL PARA-BRASIL. ON FRIDAY...SOUTH COLOMBIA...NORTH PERU...AND
ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. SECTIONS OF WEST AND EAST
COLOMBIA...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT..EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA BELOW
25MM. ON SATURDAY...INCREASE PRECIPITATE WATER AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
FROM THE WEST WILL FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER WEST
ECUADOR...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 60-125MM...WITH A RISK OF MCS
FORMATION. EAST ECUADOR...AND NORTH PERU..CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. SOUTH COLOMBIA...AND AMAPA-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page