974
FXUS01 KWBC 151938
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EST THU FEB 15 2024
VALID 00Z FRI FEB 16 2024 - 00Z SUN FEB 18 2024
...FAST MOVING AREAS OF LOW PRESSURES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MID ATLANTIC, NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...
...HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ON SATURDAY...
..HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH TEXAS
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...
...ACTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...
TWO FAST MOVING AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST
WILL BE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48. THE LEAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT FROM THE EASTERN LAKES REGION,
ACROSS NORTHERN NY STATE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL
INCHES FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, COLD AIR MOVING
ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM AND ICE FREE GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES.
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
AREAS ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AND ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST NEW YORK STATE, TO THE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
THIS FIRST FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND MOVING QUICKLY EAST NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY, INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY SATURDAY. AN AREA OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK, WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOWS POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EAST INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL A DETRIMENT
TO HEAVY TOTALS, WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FORECAST ACROSS THESE AREAS, WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS
POSSIBLE.
IN THE WAKE OF BOTH OF THESE FAST MOVING AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE,
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SPREADING SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DAY ON FRIDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH
THESE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. WHILE THESE COLDER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE A DEPARTURE FROM RECENT WARMTH ACROSS
THIS REGIONS, THE COLD SHOT WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE CURRENT STORMY PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE
PRESSING EASTWARD ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION PUSHING BACK INTO NORTHERN TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION IS THE BEGINNING OF A WETTER PATTERN
FOR CALIFORNIA, WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF CALIFORNIA FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST
ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL REGIONS. THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS SLATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT, WITH THIS THREAT
PUSHING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS, PERSISTING INTO THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL ALSO PUSH EAST NORTHEASTWARD
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND INTO NORTH
FLORIDA. THE HEAVIEST TOTALS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH TEXAS WHERE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
ORAVEC
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