864
FXCA20 KWBC 161215
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
715 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FEB 16/12UTC:
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ADJUSTED AND IT IS SUGGESTING A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR...FROM
AROUND CIALES...WEST TO AGUADA...WITH ISOLATED AREAS THAT COULD
REACH AN INCH OF RAIN. A SMALL AREA OVER NORTHEASTERN PR IN AND
AROUND RIO GRANDE IS ALSO SUGGESTED AS A POSSIBLE AREA OF HIGHER
RAINFALL TODAY WITH TOTALS JUST OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. MINIMAL
RAINFALL IF ANY IS FORECAST ELSEWHERE IN PR AND THE USVI. THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AT LEAST SOME RAIN IS FORECAST
EACH DAY ACROSS EASTERN PR...THOUGH SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY DRY
AND IT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE
EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FAVORING
EASTERN PR ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH SOME RAIN IS ALSO FORECAST FOR THE
USVI.
AT THE SFC...A SFC HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY. A SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL HAVE A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
JUST AHEAD OF IT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY CAUSE THE LOCAL WINDS TO
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY. A TRADE WIND INVERSION WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
ERODING BY TUESDAY.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EASTERN PR AS WELL
AS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA COULD OBSERVE AROUND 0.50 TO 1 INCH...WITH
THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGE ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE.
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR COULD OBSERVE NEAR
0.75 TO 1 INCH THOUGH ISOLATED AREAS COULD OBSERVE HIGHER AMOUNTS
DEPENDING ON THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE USVI
COULD OBSERVE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page