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FXCA20 KWBC 161757
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1256 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2024
..NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE UPDATED ON TUESDAY 20 JANUARY 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 16 FEB 2024 AT 1800 UTC: A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
TROUGH IS FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LEVEL FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND INTO
TAMAULIPAS ON FRIDAY EVENING. TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PROPAGATING SOUTH AND EAST AND JOIN WITH THE SECOND FRONT BY
SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND
ASSISTANCE FROM THE DIVERGENT PULSE OF THE MJO AND ACCOMPANYING
KELVIN WAVE WILL FAVOR MODERATE AMOUNTS OVER MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BY SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO VERACRUZ. INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY
ARE EXPECTED..FAVORING INCREASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. BY
SUNDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS JOIN AND THE FRONT IS LOCATED NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...NORTHERN CUBA...INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER CHIAPAS...AND INTO VERACRUZ AND OAXACA. WINDS FROM
THE NORTH...PLUS THE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN MEXICO...AND WHILE LOW LEVEL JETS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER CUBA AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS WILL FAVOR MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA...HOWEVER THE INCREASE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE REGION...AND THE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT CONTINUES MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN BY SUNDAY INDICATES THAT THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
WESTERN CUBA COULD SEE MODERATE AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL
CUBA...AND EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN HONDURAS ON SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...EXPECT DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE....AND A TRADE WIND INVERSION CAP
LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION...NO SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CHANGE THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM IN THE LOWER LEVEL IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES.
ON FRIDAY...IN MEXICO...FROM SOUTHERN SINALOA...TO MICHOACAN...AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL...EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. FROM NORTHERN VERACRUZ...TO NUEVO LEON AND
TAMAULIPAS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. EASTERN NICARAGUA...AND
NORTHERN PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 15MM...WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JETS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ON SATURDAY...AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS PUSH SOUTH OVER
MEXICO...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ/TABASCO/NORTHERN CHIAPAS...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO...THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND WEST
CUBA...EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 25MM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTS AND
INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AS THE TRADE WINDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A NORTH AND EAST
DIRECTION...CENTRAL COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.ON
SUNDAY...PORTIONS OF SOUTH VERACRUZ/EAST
OAXACA/TABASCO/CHIAPAS...AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA.
SIMILARLY...THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA CAN EXPECT
GENERALIZED AMOUNTS OF 20-45MM...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SQUALLY/SEVERE WEATHER. LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED IN BELIZE AND NORTHERN
HONDURAS/EXTREME EAST GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL...HONDURAS...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND CENTRAL CUBA...CAN
EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA BELOW 25MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG WEST COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...WITH THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL
JETS IN THE REGION.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE REGION WILL SEE SCATTERED MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOCATED TO THE WEST AND INTO
NORTHERN BRASIL...DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENT CONDITIONS
AND INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER DUE TO THE PASSING OF TROUGHS AND
INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ. FROM THE NORTH AND EAST...INTO
VENEZUELA AND THE GUIANAS...DRY AIR IS BEING ADVECTED THROUGH THE
TRADE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ON FRIDAY...AND BY SUNDAY...THE
DRY AIR IS EXPECTED INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PARA AND EAST
AMAZONAS-BRASIL. THIS WILL FAVOR THE CONVECTION...AND MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH OF THE FORECAST REGION AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. ADDITIONALLY...OVER WESTERN
ECUADOR...THE CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS ARE FAVORING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
INVERSION THAT IS NOT ALLOWING FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO A MORE
SEVERE LEVEL. FURTHERMORE...THE MJO DIVERGENT PULSE IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH
AMERICA...AND THE KELVIN WAVE SEEMS TO PROPAGATE FASTER...THUS AT
THIS TIME THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE. ON FRIDAY...WEST-CENTRAL ECUADOR...EAST ECUADOR...SOUTH
COLOMBIA...AND NORTHERN PERU MAY SEE MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. WEST AND
EAST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER NORTH SOUTH AMERICA. ON
SATURDAY...THERE IS A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER ALL...EXCEPT
IN WESTERN ECUADOR...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH RISK OF
MCS FORMATION. SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH COLOMBIA...EAST ECUADOR...AND
NORTHERN PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. BY SUNDAY...DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER VENEZUELA...EAST COLOMBIA...THE
GUIANAS...RORAIMA...AND PARA-BRASIL. WEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WITH RISK OF MCS FORMATION. WEST
COLOMBIA...AND PORTIONS OF NORTH PERU...SOUTH COLOMBIA...AND
AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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