849
FXUS01 KWBC 170726
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2024
VALID 12Z SAT FEB 17 2024 - 12Z MON FEB 19 2024
...HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
WEEKEND...
..WARMING TREND ENSUES ACROSS MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE COASTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT
BETWEEN HUMBOLDT AND SONOMA COUNTIES WHERE SOME INSTABILITY COULD
PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE PACIFIC MOISTURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL FLOW INTO THE
TRINITY AND SHASTA MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AS WELL AS
THE SIERRA NEVADA TODAY. BETWEEN 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE SIERRA WHILE 1-3 FEET ARE LIKELY FOR THE TRINITY AND
SHASTA MOUNTAINS.
ON SUNDAY, THE PREVIOUS UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHERE IT'LL GENERATE SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THOSE AREAS, WHILE A MORE POTENT CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW. ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM HUMBOLDT COUNTY DOWN TO VENTURA
COUNTY. HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SATURATED SOILS COULD CAUSE RUNOFF
CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY OVER SANTA BARBARA WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF LOW
ELEVATION RAIN AND 4-8 INCHES IN THE TRANSVERSE RANGE/OTHER
FAVORED TERRAIN WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER ROUND OF 6-12
INCHES IN THE SIERRA AND 1-3 FEET OVER THE TRINITY AND SHASTA ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE STATE'S
EAST COAST. THIS SURFACE WAVE WILL FOCUS HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA THAT DAY. COOL AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY AND TOMORROW BEHIND THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. MILDER TEMPERATURES BUILD
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST INTO NEXT WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
KEBEDE
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