601
FXUS01 KWBC 180715
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2024
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 18 2024 - 12Z TUE FEB 20 2024
...THERE'S A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
..HEAVY SNOW LIKELY OVER SIERRA NEVADA AND SHASTA SISKIYOUS
..WARMING TREND CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH MIDWEEK
A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DIRECT A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WILL FOCUS THE MOISTURE ALONG ITS ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTS AS IT MAKES IT'S WAY INTO THE STATE. HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE INLAND
VALLEYS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE WINDWARD
FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA BEGINNING THIS EVENING. SOME INSTABILITY
WILL WORK IT'S WAY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND INCREASED RAIN RATES. THUS, A MODERATE RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING (LEVEL 3/4) IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY TONIGHT AND EXPANDING
INTO VENTURA ON MONDAY AS THE HEAVY RAIN DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONT. SLIGHT RISKS (LEVEL 2/4) ARE IN EFFECT FOR HUMBOLDT
DOWN TO VENTURA TODAY AND THEN EXPANDING DOWN TO ORANGE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA AND SHASTA
SISKIYOUS TONIGHT. THIS SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY WHEN THE PACIFIC MOISTURE FEED IS LIKELY TO END. BETWEEN
2-4 FEET OF SNOW ARE FORECAST FOR THE SIERRA AND SHASTA BY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, A STALLED
OUT SURFACE FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. A STRIPE OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
PROBABLE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
KEBEDE
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