004
FXUS01 KWBC 190751
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 AM EST MON FEB 19 2024
VALID 12Z MON FEB 19 2024 - 12Z WED FEB 21 2024
...THERE'S A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG COASTAL
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...
...HEAVY SNOW LIKELY OVER SIERRA NEVADA AND SHASTA SISKIYOUS IN
CALIFORNIA...
...WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MIDWEEK...
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE DIRECTING SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. HEAVY COASTAL AND LOW
ELEVATION RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND HIGH WINDS
ARE ALL EXPECTED FROM THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE
STATE TODAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN
EFFECT FROM HUMBOLDT TO ORANGE COUNTY AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ALONG UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA. A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHERE AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
TARGETED MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR
SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FOCUS,
ESPECIALLY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. HEAVY SNOW WILL BLANKET THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND SHASTA SISKIYOUS TODAY AS WELL, WITH THOSE
MOUNTAINS FORECAST TO RECEIVE 1-3 FEET (ISOLATED HIGHER) OF SNOW
BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE MOISTURE FEED INTO CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND SAG
SOUTH ON TUESDAY, BUT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, IN PARTICULAR. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
TRANSVERSE RANGES WILL SUPPORT A RENEWED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FROM HUMBOLDT
DOWN THROUGH SAN DIEGO COUNTY ON TUESDAY MAINLY DUE TO SENSITIVE
SOILS FROM TODAY'S HEAVY RAIN. UP TO A FOOT OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SIERRA AND SHASTA SISKIYOUS ON TUESDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
ELSEWHERE, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND ACROSSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MIDWEEK WHEN ANOMALOUS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR PEAK FOR THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S..
KEBEDE
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