048
FXUS01 KWBC 192011
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST MON FEB 19 2024
VALID 00Z TUE FEB 20 2024 - 00Z THU FEB 22 2024
...HEAVY RAIN AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW IN CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME LESS INTENSE...
...A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG
PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO TONIGHT...
...WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK...
THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO BE IN THE MIDST OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN AS THE CORE OF AN ENERGETIC LARGE-SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES ONSHORE TODAY. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN,
CALIFORNIA REMAINS UNDER THE IMPACT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE ONE AREA OF CONCERN WHERE
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG
PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE MORE FOCUSED HEAVY
RAINFALL FORCED BY LOCAL TERRAIN WILL KEEP A MODERATE RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, HEAVY SNOW
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY TUESDAY, THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE RAIN/SNOW TO PROGRESSIVELY DECREASE
WITH TIME. NEVERTHELESS, ADDITIONAL RESIDUAL ENERGY ARRIVING FROM
THE PACIFIC WILL RESULT IN MORE ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
ELEVATION-DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE
FROM THE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE REACHING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS BY WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNDER A SLOW-TO-EVOLVE
WEATHER PATTERN. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK WHERE AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AS WELL. BY LATER ON WEDNESDAY, MUCH OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP.
KONG
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page