606
FXCA20 KWBC 201254
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
754 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FEB 20/12UTC:
A SFC LOW NEAR 30N/70W IS MOVING TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOW PRESSURE HAS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS ALSO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
IS OVER HISPANIOLA. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NORTH...THE COLD FRONT
AND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND OVER PR/USVI ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY BUT DECREASE QUICKLY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH A SOMEWHAT RARE NORTHWEST WIND OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. FOR THAT REASON...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN DECREASE ON THURSDAY.
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY...AND THUS LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS FORECAST.
IN THE MID LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO BE JUST WEST OF PR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND THE EASTERLY
MOVEMENT OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PR...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...THE 850-500MB AVERAGE WINDS HAVE A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTH AND EASTERN PR. THE UPPER LEVELS ALSO HAVE A TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT
WILL BE A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THAT
BEING SAID...THE EGDI ALGORITHM DOES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PR COULD OBSERVE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY
DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. THE USVI AS WELL AS
VIEQUES AND CULEBRA COULD OBSERVE NEAR 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES. SOUTHERN
COASTAL PR IS FORECAST THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN...WITH TOTALS NEAR
0.10 AND 0.25 INCHES FOR THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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