441
FXUS01 KWBC 211820
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
120 PM EST WED FEB 21 2024
VALID 00Z THU FEB 22 2024 - 00Z SAT FEB 24 2024
..SPRING-LIKE WARMTH EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO LATE WEEK
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY;
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSOURI/OHIO
VALLEY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...
SPRING-LIKE WARMTH REMAINS THE BIG WEATHER STORY EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AS LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE INDUCES STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE HEARTLAND AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-TROUGH. A LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL MAKE
FOR A DRY SHORT-TERM FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT AFTERNOON
FOR MOST, THE PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS CRITICAL (LEVEL 2/3) FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY WHEN
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS TIED TO AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD
FRONT. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY ABATE TOMORROW AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA PULLS AWAY, ALTHOUGH ELEVATED (LEVEL 1/3)
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE BIG BEND OF
TEXAS PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
BEGINNING OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW, EXPANDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MISSOURI/OHIO VALLEY AS THE
UPPER-TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH, LEADING TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL EXCEEDING AN INCH. ACCORDINGLY, A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT TOMORROW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY.
ASHERMAN
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