306
FXCA20 KWBC 211917
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
217 PM EST WED FEB 21 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 21 FEB 2024 AT 1830 UTC: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF USA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC INTO WEST PUERTO
RICO...AND ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE IT LOSES DEFINITION. A
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
REACHES THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TO THE EAST...LOCATED
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
THE NUEVA ESPARTA AND SUCRE REGION IN VENEZUELA. THE CONDITIONS IN
THE REGION REMAIN DRY AND ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. BY FRIDAY...THE FRONT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AND LOSE
DEFINITION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHILE THE SHEAR LINE IS NO
LONGER PRESENT AND HAS DISSIPATED TO A TROUGH EAST OF HE FRONT. TO
THE NORTH...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES...INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND INTO NORTH TAMAULIPAS. THE IMPACTS OF THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS MINIMAL ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY FROM MEXICO...AND
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ON WEDNESDAY...EAST COSTA RICA AND
BOCAS DEL TORO REGION IN PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM DUE
TO THE FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HIGH AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE PASSING COLD FRONT. SIMILAR AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE EJE CAFETERO IN COLOMBIA WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF THE PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE. THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION AND
PANAMA/NORTHEAST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. SIMILAR
MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO/VI.
ON THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE PERVASIVE WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A POTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE PRESENCE OF
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE REGION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...EAST COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA...AND IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA. ON FRIDAY...SIMILAR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ISOLATED AND BELOW 15MM IN THE REGION.
THE REST OF THE NORTH SOUTH AMERICAN REGION WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS IN MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...AND NORTHERN PERU...WHERE FAVORABLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FROM WINDS FROM THE WEST AND INTERACTIONS WITH THE
NORTH AND SOUTH BRANCHES OF THE ITCZ WILL ENHANCE THESE CONDITIONS
TO FAVOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS. ON THURSDAY...A SHIFT OF
WIND DIRECTION FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THE AMOUNT
PRECIPITATION OVER ECUADOR. COLOMBIA SHOULD ALSO SEE A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE DECREASES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE IN THE
WEST AND EASTERN COASTS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. IN
ECUADOR...WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH...ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND FAVORING MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE
GUIANAS AND AMAPA-BRASIL...THE ARRIVAL OF AN EASTERLY WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
40-80MM...WHILE WEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON
THURSDAY...COLOMBIA AND WEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM...WHILE CENTRAL ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
FRIDAY...WEST ECUADOR AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. FROM THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION TO THE SOUTHERN
EJE CAFETERO REGION OF COLOMBIA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. FRENCH
GUIANA AND AMAPA-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM DUE TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE EASTERLY WAVE.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 22/00 22/12 23/00 23/12 24/00 24/12 25/00 25/12
EW 12N 37W 39W 41W 45W 48W 51W 54W 57W 60W
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 37W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER EASTERN
BRASIL. BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER AMAPA-BRASIL
AND FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE FRENCH GUIANA/AMAPA/PARA
REGION.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page