233
FXCA20 KWBC 221251
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
750 AM EST THU FEB 22 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FEB 22/12UTC:
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING OVER PR TODAY...CAUSING SOME RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PR THIS MORNING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING FAIR WEATHER FOR PR/USVI BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN MOVING FROM THE WEST AFFECTING NORTHERN PR BUT LEAVING
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EAST...THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL ALSO DECREASE. PRECIPITABLE WATER COULD BE
AS LOW AS 0.7 INCHES...OR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BY
THIS EVENING. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTED THAT IT WOULD BE A DRY DAY. A
SFC TROUGH COULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD CAUSE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
COULD INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES...WHICH IS NEAR 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. FOR THAT REASON...THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY...THOUGH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...BUT THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH WOULD BE OVER THE
ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH THE
DECREASE IN RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS...LEAVING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR TROUGHINESS COULD BE
OBSERVED OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...IT IS RELATIVELY WEAK. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT AND FLATTEN BY
FRIDAY...WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT NORTHEASTERN PR
COULD OBSERVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WITH TOTALS BETWEEN
1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. THE NORTHERN USVI AS WELL AS VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA COULD OBSERVE NEAR 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES...WHILE ST CROIX IS
FORECAST NEAR 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES. WESTERN PR HAS FORECAST TOTALS
NEAR 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES FOR THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page