304
FXCA20 KWBC 221849
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
148 PM EST THU FEB 22 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 22 FEB 2024 AT 1700 UTC: ON THURSDAY...A POTENT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...SOUTH
OF MEXICO...AND WEST OF GUATEMALA...AND EXTENDS OVER MEXICO...AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. TO THE EAST...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC...INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE THE NUEVA ESPARTA AND SUCRE REGION
IN NORTH VENEZUELA. THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEEING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ON FRIDAY...A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO TAMAULIPAS. THE FRONTRAL
SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC BECOMES STATIONARY AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED WITH THESE SYSTEMS ON THURSDAY. SIMILARLY...ON
SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH ADVANCES INTO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WEST CUBA...THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
INTO NORTHERN VERACRUZ. THE EFFECTS OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LIMIT THE ABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO THE
LOW AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE REGION. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
TOTALS...ON THURSDAY...WEST PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM...THE LESSER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM....AND
SOUTHEAST COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. ON
FRIDAY...NORTHEAST PANAMA...THE OSA PENINSULA REGION IN COSTA
RICA...AND THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL IN MEXICO CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA UNDER 15MM. UNDER 10MM ARE EXPECTED IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES...AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ON SATURDAY...EAST COSTA RICA AND
THE BOCAS DEL TORO REGION IN PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO/VI...AND THE BAHAMAS CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 15MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE FOLLOWING THREE DAYS ARE FORECAST
TO BE INCREASING IN PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE
BOLIVIAN HIGH IS OVER WEST BRASIL/PERU IS FAVORING UPPER LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE NORTH OVER ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA...WHILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS OVER THE REGION HAS DECREASED.
PRECIPITATION VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ON THURSDAY. FROM
THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION IN VENEZUELA...TO COLIMBIA...AND INTO
WESTERN ECUADOR...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. EAST ECUADOR CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN
THE REGION. ON FRIDAY...THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IS EXPECTED TO FORTIFY
AND MOVE TO THE WEST...INDICATING A SHIFT OF WIND DIRECTION IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OVER COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...PERU...AND NORTHERN BRASIL.
HOWEVER IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG ECUADOR...AND THUS A SMALL INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TO THE EAST...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE GUIANAS...FAVORING PRECIPITATION. IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION...WEST ECUADOR...AND EXTREME SOUTH COLOMBIA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. FRENCH GUIANA...AMAPA...AND NORTH PERU
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE CENTRAL COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FURTHER NORTH...WHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
GENERAL EAST DIRECTION. WITH THIS...UPPER DIVERGENCE IS FAVORABLE
FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...AND PERU. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PRECIPITATBLE WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG
THE COASTS OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA...AS WELL AND NORTH PERU/WEST
BRASIL. WINDS FROM THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF ECUADOR...WHERE MAXIMA OF
60-125MM ARE EXPECTED WITH A RISK OF MCS FORMATION. NORTHEAST PERU
AND AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM WITH A RISK OF
MCS FORMATION...WHILE WEST-CENTRAL COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AFOREMNTIONED REGIONS. OVER THE GUIANAS AND PARA-BRASIL...THE
EASTERLY WAVE CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION TO THE WEST. EXPECT MAXIMA
TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM IN GUYANA...AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
BRASIL. AMAPA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM DUE TO INTERACTIONS
WITH THE ITCZ.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 23/00 23/12 24/00 24/12 25/00 25/12 26/00 26/12
EW 09N 42W 45W 48W 51W 54W 57W 60W 63W 66W
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 42W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 09N.
THE EASTERLY WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST
REGION UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. OVER EASTERN FRENCH
GUIANA...AMAPA...AND NORTHERN PARA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE
WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH AMOUNTS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHILE OVER THE GUIANAS AND VENEZUELA. BY
SATURDAY...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER SURINAME/GUYANA AND WEST
PARA-BRASIL...WHERE EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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