733
FXCA20 KWBC 231247
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
746 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FEB 23/12UTC:
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH PR/USVI AND THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND THEN NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...AS EASTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY
SATURDAY. A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LEEWARDS
ON SATURDAY AND WILL MOVE WEST...APPROACHING PR/USVI BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT
COULD BE LOCATED FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SOUTHWEST INTO
HISPANIOLA. IN THIS CASE...HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND PR/USVI COULD FIND ITSELF WITH A SFC TROUGH JUST EAST OF
THE ISLANDS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS
PATTERN WOULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT WILL
LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST IS
SUGGESTING THAT TODAY WOULD BE NEAR 0.7 INCHES...OR CLOSE TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO ABOUT 1.6 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL. BUT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
COULD PERSIST NEAR 1.8 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL THEN TRANSLATE TO SEVERAL DAYS
WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVELS WILL HAVE GENERALLY A ZONAL FLOW FROM THE WEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK TROUGH THAT
COULD MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE MID LEVELS DO SHOW A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY AS WELL...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE ISLANDS...THOUGH DIVERGENCE ITSELF MAY BE
LIMITED AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONGER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THAT BEING SAID...EVEN THOUGH
GOOD RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED...THE EGDI ALGORITHM IS ONLY
INDICATING A CHANCE OF VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT NORTHEASTERN PR
COULD OBSERVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WITH TOTALS NEAR 2
INCHES. NORTH CENTRAL AND THE INTERIOR OF PR IS FORECAST TO
OBSERVE NEAR 1 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN. THE NORTHERN USVI AS WELL
AS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA COULD OBSERVE NEAR 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES...WHILE ST CROIX IS FORECAST NEAR 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES.
WESTERN COASTAL PR HAS FORECAST TOTALS NEAR 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES
FOR THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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