553
FXCA20 KWBC 231838
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
138 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 23 FEB 2024 AT 1700 UTC: ON FRIDAY...A POTENT
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...EXTENDS INTO NORTH VENEZUELA.
A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
INTO SATURDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
TAMAULIPAS ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...IN ADDITION TO A POTENT RIDGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...THAT WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE REGION. THUS PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT
IS LOCATED...SOUTH OF TURKS AND CAICOS...OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...WEST JAMAICA...AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT...AND IS LOCATED OVER PUERTO RICO. TO THE WEST IN EASTERN
COSTA RICA AND THE BOCAS DEL TORO REGION IN PANAMA CAN EXPECT
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE NORTH AND EAST DIRECTION OF THE
TRADE WINDS ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...ON FRIDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL IN MEXICO...OSA PENINSULA IN COSTA RICA...NORTHEAST
PANAMA...NORTH BAHAMAS...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
BELOW 15MM. ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER
THE BAHAMAS...EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 10MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL...PUERTO
RICO/VI...THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...AND EAST COSTA RICA AND
NORTHEAST PANAMA. ON SUNDAY...AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
OVER PUERTO RICO/VI WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. EASTERN COSTA
RICA/NORTH PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. EAST
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
BELOW 10MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE
GUIANAS ON FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER VENEZUELA AND
INTO NORTHERN BRASIL AS THE TRADE WINDS ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION. TO THE WEST...MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED IN ECUADOR AND SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE SOUTH. ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO CHANGE AND FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER NORTH BRASIL...INTO NORTH
PERU...SOUTH COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR. ADDITIONALLY...IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...THE EASTERLY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS WEST OVER THE GUIANAS
AND INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA. WHILE IN WEST ECUADOR AND
COLOMBIA...WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IN THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST
COLOMBIA...AND WEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. TO THE
EAST...AMAPA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. FRENCH GUIANA...CENTRAL
PARA-BRASIL...AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 15MM.
ON SATURDAY...WEST AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM...WHILE SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST ECUADOR
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH RISK OF MCS FORMATION. SOUTHWEST
ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. NORTHERN BRASIL CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SUNDAY...THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 40-80MM IN AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AND 30-60MM IN RORAIMA...AND
PARA-BRASIL. WESTERN ECUADOR IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.
WESTERN COLOMBIA...AMAPA-BRASIL...AND NORTHERN PERU CAN EXPECT
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION...EXPECT
MAXIMA BELOW 25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 24/00 24/12 25/00 25/12 26/00 26/12 27/00 27/12
EW 09N 49W 51W 54W 57W 60W 63W 65W 68W 70W
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 49W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 09N. ON
FRIDAY...THE EASTERLY WAVE IS LOCATED OVER FRENCH
GUIANA...AMAPA...AND PARA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE
REGION. ON SATURDAY...UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF
THE BOLIVIAN HIGH AND A RIDGE IN NORTHEAST SOUTH AMERICA OVER
NORTHERN AMAZONAS-BRASIL...PARA...RORAIMA...WILL FAVOR CONVECTION
OVER THE REGION...AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED. THESE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS THE EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATES
OVER EAST VENEZUELA...INTO WEST RORAIMA...AND CENTRAL
AMAZONAS-BRASIL. CENTRAL AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
40-80MM...WHILE EASTERN AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AND WESTERN PARA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. SOUTHERN VENEZUELA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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