538
FXUS02 KWBC 250708
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
208 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2024
VALID 12Z WED FEB 28 2024 - 12Z SUN MAR 03 2024
..HEAVY PRECIPITATION PATTERN EMERGING AGAIN FOR THE WEST
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL CONSTITUTE A CLUSTER
OF GUIDANCE THAT VANGUARDS BETTER SEPARATED FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48 THIS WEEK THAN RECENT RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE GFS/GEFS. HOWEVER, FORECAST SPREAD IS DECREASING
AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME AND GUIDANCE SLOWLY CONVERGES ON A MORE
SIMILAR SCENARIO, BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. OVERALL, THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS MAINLY DERIVED FROM THE ECMWF/UKMET
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES AS RECENT TRENDS IN GUIDANCE AND MACHINE
LEARNING MODELS TOWARD THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION CONTINUE TO BETTER
FIT KNOWN FLOW BIASES AND WPC CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST DAY. WPC
CONTINUITY IS BEST MAINTAINED IN THE MANNER.
..OVERVIEW AND WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A DYNAMIC/AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL RACE FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY TO OFF THE EAST COAST
EARLY THURSDAY. AN EMERGING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN U.S. WITH
PROGRESSION OF A WAVY/WELL DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO A
MOIST/UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TO INCLUDE LINGERING
MIDWEEK MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TO RECORD WARMTH OVER THE EAST. SPC
SHOWS SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND VICINITY. A POST-FRONTAL SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE OFFERS TRANSITION FOR WRAP-BACK SNOWS FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.
LESS PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ENERGY EJECTION OUT
THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO MIDWEEK MAY SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION UP
INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO/HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY. DOWNSTREAM
TRANSLATION AND ADDITIONAL IMPULSES SUPPORT SYSTEM GENESIS AND
FOCUS, WITH LEAD RETURN MOISTURE TO FUEL AN EXPANDING AREA WITH
RAIN/CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LATER WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
FARTHER UPSTREAM, A GROWING GUIDANCE SIGNAL IN SUPPORT OF
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT/HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC AND GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE WEST WILL INCREASINGLY
SUPPORT CHANCES FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAIN FOCUS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID-LATER WEEK THAT SEEMS SET TO SHIFT EARNESTLY
DOWN THE COAST THROUGH CALIFORNIA LATER WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND TO
MONITOR. THE WPC DAY 4/WEDNESDAY AND DAY 5/THURSDAY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOKS OFFER MARGINAL RISK AREAS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS ALSO A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW TO SPREAD INCREASINGLY INLAND
ACROSS THE WEST, ESPECIALLY FOR FAVORED TERRAIN/MOUNTAINS AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE WPC WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY
MESSAGES ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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