571
FXUS01 KWBC 251958
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2024
VALID 00Z MON FEB 26 2024 - 00Z WED FEB 28 2024
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, GUSTY
WINDS, AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE WEST...
...ALREADY ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE PLAINS/MIDWEST
WILL GET EVEN WARMER MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS POSSIBLE...
...INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY, WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM TO MUCH OF THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
INCREASING MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO HEAVY
HIGHER ELEVATION/MOUNTAIN SNOWS FOR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
CASCADES THROUGH MONDAY, AND WILL EXPAND INTO THE SIERRA AND
RANGES OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY. THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE CHANCE (>50%) THAT MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL
SEE A FOOT OF SNOW OR MORE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION,
WIDESPREAD, STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH NUMEROUS HIGH
WIND-RELATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. SOME GUSTS
MAY REACH HAS HIGH AS 75 MPH. HEAVY SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR AT
TIMES ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. SOME
SNOW SQUALLS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES MONDAY, WHICH CAN LEAD TO SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY AND
FLASH FREEZES ALONG AREA ROADWAYS, CREATING DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.
TO THE EAST, ALREADY ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
OVER THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY WILL WARM UP EVEN MORE HEADING INTO
THE WORK WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SOAR AS MUCH
AS 30-45 DEGREES ABOVE LATE FEBRUARY AVERAGES. IT WILL FEEL MORE
LIKE SPRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MORE EARLY SUMMER-LIKE AND DOWNRIGHT HOT FOR FEBRUARY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S TO AS HOT AS THE MID-90S IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THESE HIGHS ALL ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND MIDWEST WILL BE AT DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING LEVELS, IN SOME
CASES BY SEVERAL DEGREES. A FEW FEBRUARY MONTHLY RECORDS MAY ALSO
BE TIED/BROKEN. THE WARMTH IN ADDITION TO DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS HAS RESULTED IN A CRITICAL
RISK OF FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
MONDAY, LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. WHILE NOT AS ANOMALOUS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE EAST COAST
AS WELL, WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR NEW ENGLAND, 50S AND
60S FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC, 60S AND 70S FOR THE CAROLINAS, AND 70S
AND 80S FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SHORT LIVED FOR SOME AREAS, AS THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH MAKES
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM PUSHING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THAT MUCH MORE NOTABLE AS TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. THE RETURN TO WINTER WILL SPREAD
FURTHER SOUTH AND EASTWARD WEDNESDAY JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD.
AS THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEST CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST TUESDAY, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS
WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF SOME MORE POTENT THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS SEVERE
WEATHER. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL RAMP UP LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, JUST BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. SOME MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES IN THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
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