964
FXUS01 KWBC 260759
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EST MON FEB 26 2024
VALID 12Z MON FEB 26 2024 - 12Z WED FEB 28 2024
...HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE CASCADES, THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES, SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS, AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...
..MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...
A STRONG WINTER STORM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION, REACHING
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY.
THE STORM WILL CREATE NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, RESULTING IN
DANGEROUS TRAVEL. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE OREGON CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY.
THESE SNOW RATES COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 50-65 MPH WILL
PRODUCE NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND SNOW-COVERED ROADS LEADING TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL.
MOREOVER, SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SNOW
TOTALS GREATER THAN 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED (GREATER THAN 80% CHANCE)
IN THE CASCADES THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 4 FEET
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (GREATER THAN 70%) OF
MORE THAN 1 FOOT OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS TO NEAR SEA LEVEL WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATIONS ONTO
THE VALLEY FLOORS.
FURTHERMORE, WIDESPREAD SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE PATH OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE SNOW
SQUALLS OCCUR, INTENSE SNOW RATES WILL PRODUCE RAPID DROPS IN
VISIBILITY AND ICING ON ROADWAYS, RESULTING IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL.
IN ADDITION, MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY
TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE, SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS HAVE RESULTED IN
A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3) FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER ON MONDAY, WHICH IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND OHIO VALLEY. THE MOISTURE WILL AID IN CREATING
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. BY
TUESDAY, THE MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT
LAKES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. FURTHER, ON
TUESDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF HAIL TWO INCHES OR
GREATER OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA, PLUS
NORTHWESTERN OHIO.
MOREOVER, AS THE STRONG FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES ONTO THE
PLAINS, LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SIMILARLY, OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PART OF THE WESTERN U.P.
OF MICHIGAN. ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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