090
FXCA20 KWBC 261247
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
746 AM EST MON FEB 26 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FEB 26/12UTC:
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY
THIS WEEK...SETTLING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
MIDWEEK...WHILE A SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THEN A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHILE A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO JUST NORTHWEST
OF PR WILL BECOME STATIONARY BY TUESDAY AND WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE...THEN MOISTURE WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. MOST OTHER PARAMETERS OF MOISTURE AT DIFFERENT
LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...SUCH AS THE
700-500 MB AND 850-700MB LAYER RH.
IN THE MID LEVELS...A TROUGH COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE IN ON TUESDAY
JUST NORTHEAST OF PR/USVI...THEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO MOVE IN VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OF
PR/USVI ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WINDS COULD START TO BE OBSERVED OVER PR/USVI THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS DECREASE GRADUALLY INTO
MIDWEEK...THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE AND THE MID-LEVEL
TEMPS DECREASE...TO NEAR -8C AND -10C BY THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY
RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THIS SETUP...AND OF THE MODELS VERIFY...THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORKWEEK...THOUGH MODERATELY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD NOT BE RULED OUT. THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY ONWARD. FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK...THE RAINFALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE THAT OF
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
PR IN AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANTLY
NORTHEASTERN WIND FLOW.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST FAVORS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.
MOST OF THE RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK. THE 5-DAY TOTALS COULD BE BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TO WESTERN PR. OTHER AREAS ACROSS PR...FROM THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TO THE NORTHEAST COULD OBSERVE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES.
SINCE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
THE NORTHERN USVI AS WELL AS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA COULD OBSERVE
NEAR 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES...WHILE ST CROIX IS FORECAST NEAR 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page