808
FXCA20 KWBC 261958
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EST MON FEB 26 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 26 FEB 2024 AT 1830 UTC: ON MONDAY....A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EAST CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO
NORTH HISPANIOLA...AND EAST CUBA. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE HAS
DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IT IS
LOCATED OVER PUERTO RICO/VI AND EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
OVER PUERTO RICO/VI...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25MM IN THE ISLAND.
OVER EAST CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA...EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. IN
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA...MOIST PLUMES IN THE EASTERLY
TRADES ARE FAVORING PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SIDE OF THE
COUNTRIES. THEY CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON TUESDAY...A MOIST
PLUME OVER THE EAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OFFSHORE TO THE WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY...AND ITS DIVERGENT SIDE WILL BE LOCATED
OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND
FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE...OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...AND INTO SONORA...WHERE EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. TO THE EAST...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...BUT THE ASSOCIATED AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM
THE FRONT AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE EAST WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...AND
TURKS AND CAICOS...EAST CUBA...AND PUERTO RICO/VI...WHERE EXPECT
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
EAST NICARAGUA. ON WEDNESDAY...THE MOIST PLUME FROM THE EAST
PACIFIC EXTENDS INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO...FAVORING MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...SONORA...NORTHERN
SINALOA...AND CHIHUAHUA. INTERACTIONS WITH THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL WILL FAVOR OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER NORTH CHIHUAHUA AND
CENTRAL SONORA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE
SONORA...BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND NORTH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. A FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH INTO TAMAULIPAS AND
NUEVO LEON BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BECOMES STATIONARY. INCREASED
LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN
SOUTHERN NUEVO LEON/TAMAULIPAS...AND INTO SAN LUIS POTOSI. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN EAST CUBA...HISPANIOLA...CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES...EAST NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
THE INTERACTION OF AN EASTERLY WAVE...THE ITCZ...AND UPPER
DIVERGENT CONDITIONS FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. ON
MONDAY...THE EASTERLY WAVE IS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...AND
WEST-CENTRAL AMAZONAS-BRASIL. AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM...WHILE SOUTHERN VENEZUELA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER 50MM ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COASTS OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA...FAVORING SCATTERED GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE OVER NORTHERN BRASIL....NORTH PERU...AND COLOMBIA. ON
TUESDAY...THE EASTERLY WAVE CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION TO THE
WEST...INTO SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...AND NORTHERN PERU. SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA...AND EAST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MMM...WHILE
NORTH PERU AND PORTIONS OF WEST AMAZONAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. WESTERLIES OVER WEST ECUADOR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WILL
ASSIST IN THE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER WEST ECUADOR...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...AND NORTH PARA CAN
EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERLY
WAVE IS LOCATED OVER WEST COLOMBIA...AND EAST ECUADOR. IT WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN EAST ECUADOR...20-45MM IN WEST
COLOMBIA...AND 15-25MM IN CENTRAL COLOMBIA. TO THE WEST...WINDS
FROM THE WEST ARE ENTERING WEST ECUADOR...FAVORING MAXIMA OF
50-100MM...IN THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE SOUTHWEST CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. SCATTERED GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM ARE
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN BRASIL.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 27/00 27/12 28/00 28/12 29/00 29/12 01/00 01/12
EW 05N 41W 42W 43W 45W 47W 48W 50W 51W 53W
EW 07N 64W 67W 69W 70W 73W 76W 79W 82W 84W
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 41W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 05N. IT
IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY OVER NORTHEAST BRASIL...BUT IT IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE IN THE FORECAST REGION BY THURSDAY.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 64W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 07N.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FAVORING PRECIPITATION MAXIMA
OF 35-70MM IN CENTRAL AMAZONAS-BRASIL...20-35MM IN SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA...AND 15-25MM IN WESTERN AMAZONAS-BRASIL. ON
THURSDAY...IT IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHERN
PERU...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...AND
15-25MM IN NORTH PERU. BY WEDNESDAY...IT IS CROSSING INTO SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA...AND EAST ECUADOR...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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