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FXCA20 KWBC 271231
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
731 AM EST TUE FEB 27 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FEB 27/12UTC:
AS EXPECTED...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS NOW TO THE EAST OF PR...NEAR
THE USVI EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF PR HAS BECOME STATIONARY...WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS IT WEAKENS INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOCAL WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY EASTERLY THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN GRADUALLY BECOMING
ENE TO NE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT DECREASING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL BE OBSERVED
UP INTO THE MID LEVELS...THE RH WILL BE NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AT THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB LAYERS.
IN THE MID LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE IN WITH ITS
AXIS JUST EAST OF PR/USVI...THEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO MOVE IN VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OF PR/USVI TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY...AS THE
GFS MODEL SUGGESTS 250MB WSW WINDS IN THE 80-90KT RANGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS DECREASE. ALSO TODAY...THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THE MID-LEVEL TEMPS DECREASE TO NEAR
-10C BY THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS SETUP...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME COULD BE MODERATELY
STRONG. THE GRO2T FORECAST ALGORITHM INDICATES AN AREA WITH AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND
PR/USVI...WHILE THE EGDI ALGORITHM SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA. FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...THE RAINFALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE THAT OF TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF BRIEF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF PR
IN AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANTLY ENE-NE
WIND FLOW.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...AS WELL AS A SECTION OF
NORTHEASTERN PR. MOST OF THE RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED TODAY...THOUGH
SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED EVERY DAY. THE
5-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TO WESTERN PR...AND BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PR. OTHER AREAS ACROSS PR COULD OBSERVE BETWEEN 0.5
AND 1.25 INCHES. SINCE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. THE NORTHERN USVI AS WELL AS VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA COULD OBSERVE NEAR 0.50 TO 1 INCH...WHILE ST CROIX IS
FORECAST NEAR 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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