837
FXCA20 KWBC 271904
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
203 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 26 FEB 2024 AT 1830 UTC:
ON TUESDAY...A MOIST PLUME IS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTH
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND SONORA...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15 IN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
IN SONORA. TO THE EAST...A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED
OVER TURKS AND CAICOS...AND EAST CUBA. ELEVATED AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM MOIST PLUMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENED
SYSTEM ARE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES...WHERE IT IS
INTERACTING WITH THE ISLANDS AND FAVORING OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NORTH
AND EAST OF HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE PUERTO
RICO/VI CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. TURKS AND CAICOS...EAST
CUBA...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...EAST
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA/PANAMA ARE SEEING SIMILAR
EFFECTS FROM MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY TRADES...WITH OROGRAPHIC
LIFT IS FAVORING MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED OVER NORTH SONORA AND SOUTH ARIZONA...AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND NORTH. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO. NORTH CHIHUAHUA AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL SONORA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE
IN SONORA...NORTH BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND NORTH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. A FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA...INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO TAMAULIPAS...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STATIONARY. FROM SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...INTO SAN LUIS
POTOSI...HIDALGO...AND VERACRUZ...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AS
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS ARE FAVORING OROGRAPHIC LIFT
OVER EAST CUBA...HISPANIOLA...THE LESSER
ANTILLES...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. ON THURSDAY...THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TEXAS/TAMAULIPAS. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.
THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS FROM
THE PAST TWO DAYS. EAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL...EAST CUBA...NORTH HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO/VI...THE
GULF OF HONDURAS REGION...EAST NICARAGUA...PANAMA...AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES CAN EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN BELOW 15-20MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...EASTERLY WAVES AND TROUGHS ARE MAKING
THEIR WAY WEST AND FAVORING MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. ALOFT...THE BOLIVIAN HIGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
BOLIVIA INTO NORTHERN PERU...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL BRASIL EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN PARA AND AMAZONAS-BRASIL. THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF
DIVERGENCE OVER NORTH PERU AND PORTIONS OF ECUADOR AND NORTH
BRASIL. TO THE EAST...INTERACTIONS BETWEEN A TROUGH...AN EASTERLY
WAVE AND THE ITCZ ARE FAVORING MODERATE PRECIPITATION IN AMAPA AND
NORTH PARA. WEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...WHILE THE
EASTERLY WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SOUTH
COLOMBIA...NORTH PERU...AND EAST ECUADOR. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE REGION. SOUTH AMAPA...AND
NORTHEAST PARA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. SOUTH VENEZUELA AND
RORAIMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN NORTH SOUTH
AMERICA...EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
BOLIVIAN HIGH MIGRATES TO THE WEST...CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND WEST OF SOUTHERN PERU/NORTH CHILE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ALLOW FOR DIVERGENCE
OVER NORTHERN PERU AND ECUADOR. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WESTERLIES
OVER ECUADOR AND NORTHERN PERU WILL FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. TO THE
EAST...THE TROUGHS AND WAVES CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA...AND EAST BRASIL. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...NORTHWEST
ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-125MM...AND SOUTHWEST ECUADOR CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...BOTH REGIONS WITH A RISK OF MCS
FORMATION. ON THURSDAY...CONTINUED UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE
INTERACTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS PRESENT OVER
ECUADOR...NORTH PERU...AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AND PARA/SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA. IN ADDITIONALLY...WEST ECUADOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO SEE WESTERLIES INTO THE REGION...CONTINUING WITH SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. NORTHWEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
50-100MM...WHILE SOUTHWEST ECUADOR...AND INTO PERU...CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PERU...INTO
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.
WESTERN COLOMBIA COULD SEE 20-45MM WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN
EASTERLY WAVE CROSSING THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE EASTERLY
WAVE OVER AMAPA AND PARA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. OTHER
REGIONS OF NORTH BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. CENTRAL
COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 28/00 28/12 29/00 29/12 01/00 01/12 02/00 02/12
EW 06N 40W 42W 44W 46W 48W 50W 53W 56W 59W
EW 07N 70W 73W 76W 78W 80W DISS
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 40W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 06N. IT
IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY OVER NORTHEAST BRASIL...BUT IT IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE IN THE FORECAST REGION BY THURSDAY...WHERE AMAPA...AND
PARA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 70W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 07N. ON
TUESDAY...THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN
SOUTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHERN PERU. ON WEDNESDAY...EASTERN
ECUADOR...SOUTH COLOMBIA...AND NORTHERN PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. WHILE SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. BY
THURSDAY...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE...BUT ASSOCIATED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH LOCAL CONDITIONS.
WEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM...WHILE WEST COLOMBIA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page