153
FXUS01 KWBC 272013
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
313 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2024
VALID 00Z WED FEB 28 2024 - 00Z FRI MAR 01 2024
...STRONG COLD FRONT TO USHER IN A VARIETY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
ACROSS THE HEARTLAND TODAY; BRIEFLY DISRUPT RECORD WARM SPELL...
...POWERFUL WEST COAST STORM BRINGS SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND TO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
MUCH OF THE NATION'S WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS
REMAINS TIED TO A STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE LOWER 48. AFTER A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD ALL-TIME RECORD
BREAKING WARMTH YESTERDAY, TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE PLUMMETED NEARLY 50-60 DEGREES BEHIND THE
FRONT IN A STARK REMINDER THAT METEOROLOGICAL WINTER IS STILL WITH
US FOR TWO MORE DAYS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST
TODAY, AS WIDESPREAD RECORD WARMTH (INCLUDING SOME ALL TIME
RECORDS) ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE FALLING OFF INTO
THE 40'S AND 50'S TOMORROW. STARK PATTERN CHANGE ASIDE, THIS
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRIVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
(LEVEL 2/3) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OWING TO THE COMBINATION OF
VERY DRY, WARM, AND GUSTY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. TO THE EAST IN THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY, AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER,
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING GUSTS, AND TORNADOES (SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT) ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN TOMORROW, BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOCUSES IMPACTS ATOP THE
CASCADES AND SIERRA NEVADA IN CALIFORNIA. EXTREMELY HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES EXCEEDING 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE FEET OF
SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THESE AREAS (PARTICULARLY ABOVE 5000
FEET), INCLUDING PASSES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED RANGES. WHEN
COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS, THIS SNOWFALL WILL LEAD TO
DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ACCORDINGLY, A SWATH OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES EXTEND
FROM THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES SOUTHWARD INTO THE SHASTAS AND
SIERRA NEVADA. IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
ASHERMAN
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