670
FXCA20 KWBC 281249
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
748 AM EST WED FEB 28 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FEB 28/12UTC:
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF PR HAS WEAKENED INTO A SFC
TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY..WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER GOING FROM AROUND 1.6 INCHES THIS
MORNING..WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL...TO ABOUT 1.3 INCHES
TONIGHT...WHICH IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THOUGH DECREASING EVEN MORE BY
SATURDAY TO BELOW NORMAL...THEN INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. THE LOCAL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE ENE-NE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BECOMING EASTERLY ON SUNDAY. THE OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY AND THUS THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
IS EXPECTED EVERY DAY IN THE 5-DAY PERIOD...THE RAINFALL PATTERN
OS EXPECTED TO BE THAT OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS AFFECTING EASTERN PR
AND THE USVI...WITH SOME SMALL AREAS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF PR...ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AND ITS AXIS WOULD
BE TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD PUT PR/USVI IN THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH IN THE
MID LEVELS...BUT THE AXIS IS ALSO TO THE EAST OF PR/USVI...AND
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL START MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE POSITIONING AND MOVEMENT
OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL PROMOTE A TRANSITION TO A
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THEREFORE
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH
SOME RAIN IS STILL FORECAST. THE EGDI FORECAST ALGORITHM IS
SUGGESTING A CHANCE OF VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
TODAY...BUT THE CHANCES DECREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES OVER
PR...LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PR...WHILE AREAS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PR COULD OBSERVE
BETWEEN 0.75 AND ONE INCH OF RAIN. OTHER AREAS ACROSS PR COULD
OBSERVE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES. VIEQUES AND CULEBRA ARE
FORECAST NEAR 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES...WHILE THE USVI ARE FORECAST
NEAR 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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