495
FXCA20 KWBC 281743
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1243 PM EST WED FEB 28 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 28 FEB 2024 AT 1700 UTC: ON WEDNESDAY...A MOIST
PLUME FROM THE EAST PACIFIC IS LOCATED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
AND INTO SOUTHERN SONORA. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ARE AROUND
30-35MM. THIS MOIST PLUME IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND LOW THAT IS QUICKLY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
AND DISSIPATING FURTHER NORTH. THESE WILL FAVOR SOME CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. NORTH
CHIHUAHUA...AND CENTRAL SONORA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. WHILE
NORTH SONORA...AND NORTH BAJA CALIFORNIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-20MM. DUE TO THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...IT IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO BY THURSDAY...AND
REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY. TO THE EAST...A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
LOCATED OVER TAMAULIPAS...AND EXTENDS INTO THE NORTH GULF OF
MEXICO...AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM OVER SOUTH TAMAULIPAS/NUEVO LEON...AND NORTH
VERACRUZ. ON THURSDAY...THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO FAVOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ARE REMAINING BELOW
35MM IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF MEXICO. THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON FRIDAY...THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM AS THE FRONT
MOVES OVER NORTH VERACRUZ AND BECOMES STATIONARY.
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM MOISTURE IN
THE TRADE WINDS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF A MOIST PLUME OVER
PUERTO RICO/VI...AND THE NORTH LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE DISSIPATING
OVER THE ISLANDS...AND PROPAGATING TO THE WEST...FAVORING ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION IN HISPANIOLA AND EAST CUBA. HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...AND EAST CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...EAST
NICARAGUA...AND NORTH PANAMA. ON THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY...SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN HISPANIOLA...EAST AND WEST
CUBA...JAMAICA...PUERTO RICO...THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND THE
EASTERN SHORES OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS IN WEST ECUADOR...PLUS THE ARRIVAL OF AN EASTERLY WAVE
OVER CENTRAL ECUADOR WILL FAVOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
NORTHWEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WHILE SOUTHWEST
ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...BOTH REGIONS WITH A RISK OF
MCS FORMATION. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO COME FROM THE WEST...AND A POTENTIAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC INVERSION COULD LIMIT DEEPER CONVECTION. THE TRADE
WINDS FROM THE EAST CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN
BRASIL...NORTH PERU...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA. SOUTH VENEZUELA/RORAIMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...WHILE NORTH PERU/EAST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. NORTH AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND NORTH PARA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. WHILE THE APPROACHING EASTERLY WAVE NEAR AMAPA WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON THURSDAY...UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVER
SOUTHERN ECUADOR AND NORTHERN PERU...FROM THE INTERACTION OF THE
BOLIVIAN HIGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING
OVER PERU. WHILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM
THE WESTERLIES INTO SOUTH COLOMBIA AND WEST ECUADOR WILL ASSIST IN
PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEEP CONVECTION. SOUTHWEST
ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM...WHILE NORTHWEST ECUADOR
AND SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. OVER NORTHERN
BRASIL AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA...INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE TRADES WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
35-70MM IN AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AND CENTRAL PARA...WHILE 20-35MM IS
EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...RORAIMA...AND NORTHERN PARA.
AMAPA IS EXPECTED TO SEE MAXIMA OF 30-60MM DUE TO AN EASTERLY
WAVE. ON FRIDAY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. FROM SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA TO
SOUTHWESTERN ECUADOR...EXPECT FAVORABLE MOISTURE DIVERGENCE FROM
THE WESTERLY WINDS...AND WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST. THE AREA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. SIMILARLY...IN
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ECUADOR AND SOUTH COLOMBIA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
40-80MM. BOTH AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS CAN EXPECT A RISK OF MCS
FORMATION. TO THE EAST...THE EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATES OVER
NORTHERN PARA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...WHILE
AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS. NORTHWEST PERU IS
EXPECTED TO SEE MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE IN NORTH SOUTH
AMERICA EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 29/00 29/12 01/00 01/12 02/00 02/12 03/00 03/12
EW 06N 44W 46W 48W 51W 53W 56W 58W 61W 64W
EW 06N 76W 78W 80W DISS
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 44W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 06N.
THE WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER AMAPA AND NORTH PARA ON THURSDAY...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN SOUTHERN SURINAME/GUYANA...AND NORTHERN
PARA.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 70W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 06N. ON
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WHILE
SOUTHWEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. SOUTH
COLOMBIA...EAST ECUADOR...AND NORTH PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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