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FXCA20 KWBC 291228
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
728 AM EST THU FEB 29 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FEB 29/12UTC:
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...THE GENERAL RAINFALL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
BE THAT OF BRIEF SHOWERS AFFECTING NORTHERN AND EASTERN PR AS WELL
AS THE USVI...BUT SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD BE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR TODAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PR ON MONDAY. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS NOW
NEAR NORMAL AND IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED EVERY
DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH AND EASTERN
PR AND THE USVI...SATURDAY BEING THE DRIEST DAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...BECOMING EASTERLY BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A SFC TROUGH APPROACHING
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH COULD
BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...AND WILL BE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH ZONAL
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW PRESENT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THEN.
MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALSO HAVE A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY...BUT A BRIEF UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER ON FRIDAY.
FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...THE WNW TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
WILL RETURN AND REMAIN OVER THE ISLANDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
UPPER JET COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE WINDS COULD BE NEAR 80KT. THE RELATIVELY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WINDS COINCIDING WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SFC
TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR NORTHEASTERN PR...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS
LOW GIVEN THAT IT IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PR...WHILE AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN PR COULD OBSERVE
NEAR 1 INCH OF RAIN. OTHER AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN PR COULD OBSERVE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES. VIEQUES AND CULEBRA ARE FORECAST
NEAR 0.50 TO 1 INCH...WHILE THE USVI ARE FORECAST NEAR 0.50 TO
0.75 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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