735
FXCA20 KWBC 291841
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
141 PM EST THU FEB 29 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 29 FEB 2024 AT 1800 UTC: ON THURSDAY... A MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS DOMINATING OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...EXTENDING
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC...OVER MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...AND
TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. IT IS FAVORING TRADE WIND INVERSIONS OVER
THE REGION...DECREASING THE CHANCES OF DEEP CONVECTION.
ADDITIONALLY...THE REGION IS SEEING DRY AIR AND THUS DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND
TAMAULIPAS/NUEVO LEON. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONDITIONS...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN
THE REGION. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DUE TO MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WINDS
PROMOTING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ON
THURSDAY...NORTH PANAMA...EAST CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
BELOW 15MM. ON FRIDAY...NORTH VERACRUZ...INTO THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. THE GOLFO DE HONDURAS
REGION...AND EAST NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS. SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DRIEST DAY OUT OF THE THREE...WHERE MAXIMA
AROUND THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE AREA IS SEEING CONVERGENCE OVER
NORTHERN BRASIL...TROUGHS PROPAGATING TO THE WEST ARE INTERACTING
WITH THE ITCZ AND ENCOUNTERING FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE REGION. THE AREA IS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES LARGER THAN 55MM...AND MAKING POSSIBLE THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. WEST ECUADOR...NORTH PERU...AND
AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. PORTIONS OF AMAPA
AND NORTH PARA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. BY FRIDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN EASTERLY MAKES ITS WAY OVER PARA-BRASIL
AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ALONG THE ITCZ FAVORS HEAVY
PRECIPITATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...A KELVIN WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
OVER MOST OF SOUTH AMERICA...FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
REGION. TO THE WEST...MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAVORING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG ECUADOR AND SOUTH COLOMBIA...WHERE MAXIMA OF
40-80MM WITH RISK OF MCS FORMATION IS EXPECTED. AMAZONAS-BRASIL
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM. CENTRAL ECUADOR INTO NORTHWEST PERU...ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. FROM CENTRAL COLOMBIA INTO NORTHWEST PERU CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...THE EASTERLY WAVE
CONTINUES WEST INTO AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND IS FAVORING MAXIMA OF
35-70MM FROM SOUTH VENEZUELA...INTO AMAZONAS-BRASIL. WESTERLIES
OVER COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. CENTRAL COLOMBIA...AND
PARA-BRASIL ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. WHILE THE REST OF THE
REGION CAN EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 01/00 01/12 02/00 02/12 03/00 03/12 04/00 04/12
EW 06N 49W 51W 54W 58W 62W 65W 68W 70W 72W
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 49W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 06N.
THE WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER AMAPA AND NORTH PARA ON THURSDAY...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED MOVE
FASTER INTO WEST PARA AND RORAIMA...TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
SOUTHERN SURINAME/GUYANA...AND NORTHWEST PARA. ON SATURDAY...THE
EASTERLY WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND INTO
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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