451
FXUS01 KWBC 291942
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 PM EST THU FEB 29 2024
VALID 00Z FRI MAR 01 2024 - 00Z SUN MAR 03 2024
...A STORMY PATTERN TO END FEBRUARY AND BEGIN MARCH FOR THE WEST
COAST, INLAND INTO THE CASCADES, SIERRA, GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...
...VERY HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY THROUGH THE SIERRA, WHILE LOWER
ELEVATION HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED FROM COASTAL CALIFORNIA INTO THE
COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...A WARMING TREND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST,
WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST
COAST...
A DEEP UPPER VORTEX OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CANADIAN/U.S. PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEST
COAST, INLAND THROUGH THE CASCADES, SIERRA, GREAT BASIN AND INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A LEAD COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING INLAND
THURSDAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SAME REGIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO FRONTS WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE SIERRA AND AS FAR TO THE SOUTH
AS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST RANGES. THE MOST
PERSISTENT ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW IN THIS STORMY
PATTERN WILL BE DIRECTED INTO NORTHERN TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
VERY HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY THROUGH THE SIERRA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS,
WITH SNOW TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 FEET FORECAST. WHILE NOT AS GREAT,
HEAVY SNOWFALL ALSO LIKELY THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OF IDAHO,
MONTANA, WYOMING, THROUGH THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON,
THE OLYMPIC RANGE AND COAST RANGES OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
LOWER ELEVATION HEAVY RAINS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA. MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA HAS SEEN ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST
MONTH, WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS INCREASING THE RISK OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING. AT THE MOMENT, THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
FLOODING IS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE NORTHERN SIERRA.
WET WEATHER ALSO LIKELY FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND SPREAD EAST NORTHEASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH FAST
MOVING AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO, NORTHEASTWARD AND OF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE REGIONS, THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
STORM AND THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THIS REGION HAS BEEN DRY OVER THE
PAST FEW WEEKS, ALLOWING STREAM FLOWS TO FALL AND SOIL MOISTURE
VALUES TO DECREASE, WILL BE A DETRIMENT TO WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ISSUES.
THE STORMY PATTERN AFFECTING LARGE PORTIONS OF THE WEST OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WEST. THE COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THAT HAD
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. BEHIND THE
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THESE REGIONS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, WILL BE WARMING OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THE CORE OF THE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 20 TO 30+ DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW RECORD HIGH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE UPPER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
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