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FXCA20 KWBC 011211
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
710 AM EST FRI MAR 01 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI MAR 01/12UTC:
THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY
TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING EASTERLY ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WIND FLOW WILL FAVOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AFFECT NORTH
AND EASTERN PR AS WELL AS THE USVI WITH THE ADVECTIVE SHOWERS EACH
DAY. SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS A SMALL
AREA OF SOUTHWESTERN PR. THE CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION INCREASE ON SUNDAY ONWARD...FAVORING CENTRAL TO WESTERN
PR ON SUNDAY...AND CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PR ON MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SATURDAY IS STILL FORECAST TO BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE
5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TODAY...BUT WILL DECREASE TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT CONTINUES
INCREASING...REACHING ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. THESE
FLUCTUATIONS IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH FLUCTUATIONS
IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT WILL IMPACT THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE
THE LOCAL WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE A SFC TROUGH
SITS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH COULD MOVE WEST AND PASS
TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AROUND TUESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL PROMOTE
STABILITY AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE WIND INVERSION UNTIL
EARLY SUNDAY. THEN A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE GENERAL AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS NORTH OF PR. A BRIEF
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY...BUT GENERALLY ZONAL
AND WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD DEVELOP ON SUNDAY WITH ITS
AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER JET WILL MOVE OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS THAT COULD REACH AS MUCH AS
90KT ON SUNDAY EVENING AROUND PR/USVI. THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE
EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...CAUSING SPEED DIVERGENCE ALOFT...MEANWHILE
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO MOVE EAST...FROM THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY TO OVER HISPANIOLA ON MONDAY...AND OVER
PR/USVI OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...COINCIDING WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WOULD ENHANCE
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE NEAR 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR...WHILE AREAS OF SOUTH
COASTAL PR COULD OBSERVE NEAR 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES. OTHER AREAS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO NORTHERN PR COULD OBSERVE BETWEEN 0.50 AND
1 INCH. VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE USVI ARE
ALSO FORECAST NEAR 0.50 TO 1 INCH.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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