436
FXCA20 KWBC 011857
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
157 PM EST FRI MAR 01 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 01 MAR 2024 AT 1800 UTC: ON FRIDAY...A
DOMINATING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...EXTENDS
INTO MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...NORTH COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA...AND
INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES. IT IS FAVORING TRADE WIND INVERSION CAPS
OVER THE REGION...AND LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EXTENDS INTO TAMAULIPAS. DUE TO THE
DRY ENVIRONMENT IN THE REGION...THE TAMAULIPAS...SAN LUIS
POTOSI...AND NORTHER VERACRUZ REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND LESSER ANTILLES...EAST
NICARAGUA...AND NORTH PANAMA...MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED WITH THE
TRADE WINDS...FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE GREATER AND
LESSER ANTILLES...AND NORTHERN PANAMA COULD EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW
15MM...WHILE EAST NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON
SATURDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE LEVELS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE REGION ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 30-35MM IN THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHERE VALUES
COULD EXCEED 40MM. LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WITH MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO CENTRAL
GUATEMALA...AND EAST CHIAPAS. HOWEVER...SECTORS OF THE GREATER AND
LESSER ANTILLES ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 10MM. ON SUNDAY...A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED
STATES...AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE BAHAMAS.
INCREASED AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND FAVORABLE UPPER
DIVERGENCE DUE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
WITH A CHANCE OF SQUALLY WEATHER IN THE BAHAMAS. OTHER REGIONS IN
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SEE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FAVOR GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE BOLIVIAN HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALOFT ARE INTERACTING OVER PORTIONS OF PERU AND SOUTH
ECUADOR/COLOMBIA. THIS IS FAVORING UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THESE
REGIONS AND ALLOWING DEEP CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. SIMILARLY...THE
PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHEAST BRASIL...ALSO FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION OVER NORTH
BRASIL. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
DUE TO INTERACTIONS BETWEEN TROUGHS AND THE ITCZ WILL PROVIDE THE
CONDITIONS FOR MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. ON
FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND WEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM WITH RISK OF MCS FORMATION. MAXIMA OF 40-80MM ARE EXPECTED
OVER AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND NORTHEAST PERU. EAST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. AND EASTERLY WAVE OVER WEST PARA AND EAST
AMAZONAS-BRASIL WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON SATURDAY...THE
EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATES INTO RORAIMA AND EAST AMAZONAS...WHERE IT
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. WESTERLIES OVER WEST COLOMBIA ARE
FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE REGION...AND THE CHOCO REGION
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. CENTRAL ECUADOR IS FORECAST MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM...WHILE NORTH PARA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
SUNDAY...MODE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TOTALS
OVER THE REGION. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE CONVERGENT PHASE OF THE
MJO PASSING OVER SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH A KELVIN
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE WEEKEND...THE
CURRENT CONVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH THE POSSIBILITIES OF DIVERGENT CONDITIONS OVERALL.
HOWEVER...LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS. IN PARA...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION WATER AND FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. WEST
PARA AND EAST AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE
WEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS. ELSEWHERE OVER NORTH
SOUTH AMERICA...EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 02/00 02/12 03/00 03/12 04/00 04/12 05/00 05/12
EW 06N 54W 57W 60W 62W 64W 67W 69W DISS
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 54W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 06N. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED MOVE INTO WEST PARA...TO FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON SATURDAY...THE EASTERLY WAVE IS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...RORAIMA...AND EASTERN
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. ON SUNDAY...THE
EASTERLY WAVE BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE AMAZONAS-BRASIL...WHERE
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED. AFTERWARDS...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE ANDES.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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