740
FXUS01 KWBC 022024
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST SAT MAR 02 2024
VALID 00Z SUN MAR 03 2024 - 00Z TUE MAR 05 2024
...WINTER STORM CONTINUES IN THE WEST WITH HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW,
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, AND POWERFUL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE
SIERRA NEVADA...
...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER ACROSS MONTANA
AND NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WINTRY MIX FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...
...A COASTAL STORM WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL EXIT NEW ENGLAND
ON SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER COASTAL STORM IS FORECAST TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER ON MONDAY...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES SHIFTING FROM THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT
PERSISTS IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM REMAINS IN PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WEST, INCLUDING DANGEROUS, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA
NEVADA AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCES ITS WAY INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. A MULTI-DAY INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
INTERACTING WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA IS
BRINGING HEAVY HIGHER ELEVATION, MOUNTAIN SNOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE
RANGES OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, THE
GREAT BASIN, AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THESE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION,
WIDESPREAD WIND-RELATED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREATER WESTERN U.S. AS WIND GUSTS REACH
UPWARDS OF 55 MPH, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 75 MPH FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, LEADING TO THE RISK OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.
THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND HIGH WINDS IS MOST INTENSE IN THE
SIERRA NEVADA INTO TONIGHT, WHERE HEAVY SNOW RATES EXCEEDING 3"
PER HOUR AND WINDS GUSTING OVER 100 MPH ARE CAUSING SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING, DRIFTING SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, MAKING TRAVEL
IMPOSSIBLE THROUGH THE AREA. ADDITIONAL 2 FEET OF SNOW, ON TOP OF
A FEW FEET OF RECENT SNOWFALL, CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA
NEVADA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MOST INTENSE SNOW AND WIND SHOULD BEGIN
TO WIND DOWN LATER ON SUNDAY BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM THE
PACIFIC WILL KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM FORECAST TO REACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE COLDER
AIRMASS MOVING IN, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES; 30S AND 40S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, AND CENTRAL ROCKIES; 50S FOR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA; AND 60S FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER INTO THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
AS ENERGY FROM UPPER TROUGH IN THE THE WESTERN U.S.BEGINS TO EXIT
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. IT
APPEARS THAT A LACK OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL SEVERELY
LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED THIS SYSTEM DESPITE ITS
STRENGTH. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS FORECAST ONLY FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO
NEAR THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE STORM
CENTER IS PREDICTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY THEN.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRENGTHENING ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHERE BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BARELY BE MEASURABLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO
FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK TOWARD THE
UPPER MIDWEST. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES LATER ON MONDAY.
ALONG THE EAST COAST, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG A
COASTAL FRONT UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO BRING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY, GRADUALLY BRINGING
THE RAIN OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY
JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHERE ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN INTO THE CAROLINA COASTS ON MONDAY,
REACHING INTO THE EASTERN SHORES OF MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE THE THE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
WIDESPREAD WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THE GREATEST ANOMALIES WILL
BE CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY, SPREADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS ON SUNDAY, WHERE FORECAST HIGHS REACHING
WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S ARE UPWARDS OF 25-35 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. SOME HIGHS MAY TIE/BREAK LOCAL DAILY RECORDS. FURTHER
SOUTH, HIGHS WILL BE INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
MONDAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE COASTAL LOW, WITH HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE 40S AND 50S IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE 50S AND 60S IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE NOT QUITE AS ANOMALOUS, HIGHS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE 60S AND 70S ARE STILL RUNNING ABOVE EARLY MARCH
AVERAGES.
KONG/PUTNAM
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