215
FXUS01 KWBC 030816
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
315 AM EST SUN MAR 03 2024
VALID 12Z SUN MAR 03 2024 - 12Z TUE MAR 05 2024
...WINTER STORM IN THE WEST PRODUCING POWERFUL BLIZZARD IN THE
SIERRA NEVADA BEGINS TO WANE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY; MORE SNOW
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MONDAY...
...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER ACROSS MONTANA
AND NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WINTRY MIX FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...
...ANOTHER COASTAL STORM IS FORECAST TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER ON MONDAY...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES SHIFTING FROM THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT
PERSISTS IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST WHICH HAS BEEN IMPACTED BY WIDESPREAD HEAVY
MOUNTAIN SNOWS, GUSTY WINDS, AND A POWERFUL BLIZZARD IN THE SIERRA
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A MOISTURE PLUME FORM
THE PACIFIC WEAKENS AND THE TRACK OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGIES SHIFTS
NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL WANE IN INTENSITY, THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN CASCADES/SIERRA, WASATCH, AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL ENERGIES APPROACHING THE WEST COAST MONDAY
LOOK TO QUICKLY BRING BACK INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
INCLUDING HEAVY SNOWFALL, TO THE SOUTHERN CASCADES/NORTHERN
SIERRA, AND POTENTIALLY INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT ANOTHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC IS EXPECTED. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AS A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ALONG THE COAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN,
PARTICULARLY ALONG SOUTHERN OREGON INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTING EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE WEST IS HELPING
TO ORGANIZE/DEEPEN A LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING, WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES MONDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AS COLDER
AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTH, MOST LIKELY ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A WINTRY
MIX IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY
WINDS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW WHERE SNOWFALL DOES
OCCUR. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/MIDWEST, INITIALLY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING DESPITE THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING. SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WILL END SUNDAY MORNING IN NEW ENGLAND AS A COASTAL STORM
DEPARTS THE REGION EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES UP THERE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THEN, ON MONDAY, ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE CAROLINAS AND BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL
AREAS.
WIDESPREAD MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, SPRING-LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
GREATEST ANOMALIES OF 25-35 DEGREES WILL STRETCH FROM THE
LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY, SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, LOWER GREAT LAKES,
AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. NUMEROUS DAILY
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES REACH
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE RATHER
WARM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN LOW TO MID-80S.
UNFORTUNATELY, PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ALONG THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE
WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3) OUTLINED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. ALONG
THE EAST COAST, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN THE 40S AND
50S FOR NEW ENGLAND, 50S AND 60S FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND 70S TO
LOW 80S FOR THE SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA. IN THE WEST, HIGHS WILL REMAIN
COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE, RANGING FROM THE 30S AND 40S IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST, 50S IN
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, 60S IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND 60S
AND 70S INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE COLDEST SPOT IN THE COUNTRY
WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, WHERE HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOLLOWING A COUPLE COLD FRONT
PASSAGES.
PUTNAM
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